I am not going to stick my neck out with concrete predictions, except to the extent that I agree with the betting markets that it’s close to 50/50 with the edge going to Biden.
- Trump has incumbent advantage, but Biden is not Hillary, so the two cancel out.
- Like it or not, blame for Corona was successfully refocused on China, at least amongst conservatives. So it’s not going to be a big issue.
- Trump has lost support amongst boomers, gained a bit amongst youth.
- Trump has lost support amongst Whites, gained them amongst Blacks and especially Latinos. This is really hilarious, but quite logical, as I already observed in 2016 US elections are going the way of Latin American ones and they like their caudillos. Castizo futurism FTW.
- Trump has massively lost support amongst college-educated Whites, not that he had much of it in the first place.
None of these necessarily mean that Trump was dealt a losing hand. The Republican base of support is tilting strongly towards the poor and lower-IQ across all races, while the Dems have become the party of the moneyed cosmopolitans. Trumpism plays better with Latinos and even Blacks (relative to previous Republicans). In line with the Latinization of US politics, one can draw a comparison with “Trump of the Tropics” Bolsonaro – so should we now call Trump “Bolsonaro do Norte?” – who got much fewer votes from the educated elites who had traditionally voted conservative in Brazil… but many more from “based” mulattoes, etc. I wrote about this fascinating phenomenon in Brazil here.
However, what’s actually bad for Trump is that the White, boomer support he is losing is concentrated in the vital swing Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. It also hurts him in New Hampshire and Maine’s 2nd congressional district, which may not be inconsequential in a close election.
Sure, Florida seems to be a cinch. (If it’s not, he’s very likely doomed anyway). Letting the felons vote actually favors Trump, because the low IQ vote for him; although tons of Black felons will vote for Biden, the effect from White felons who favor Trump will be bigger. And the Hispanic shift in Trump’s favor further reinforces him in Florida and Arizona. Otherwise, though, there are no swing states where greater support amongst Latinos (or Blacks) translates into the real possibility of an electoral shift.
Anyhow, I expect the election to be extremely close, with Trump taking Florida and Arizona, but getting challenged much more strongly by Biden in the Rust Belt (recall that even HRC only lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by <1% – taking all of them would have been enough to win, and considering their similar demographics, this means that the 2/3 odds she was getting before the election were quite reasonable, even in retrospect). In terms of political stability, at least in the medium-term, the best result would be either a strong Biden win or a strong Trump win.
But more likely any result will not be known for weeks (close election + coronavirus delaying counting in some states). And we could even see a contingent election along the lines of the above map. Considering the Republican allegations of Democratic fraud, Trump refusing to commit to leaving the White House in the event of an election loss, and counter-insinuations of color revolution from the Dems, it would be very interesting to observe such a result play out.
Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.
If you are new to my work, start here.
Things will get interesting for sure…
I see things pretty much the same way as you do, ak; but I think that Biden will probably win in Arizona and/or Wisconsin.
The big wild card I see is how far Trump and state Republican officials go to throw out ballots, especially mail-in ballots, from Biden-leaning neighborhoods. In theory, if the results of enough states are contested for weeks after the election, the Senate could decide which slate of electors from each state (with multiple slates) to count, possibly giving Pence (as President of the Senate) the power to determine the outcome of the race.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
Has Trump done anything for the rust belt? It doesn’t seem that way. Look at the drug epidemic which is particularly bad in the rust belt states. It has continued rising essentially uncontrolled. United States is on track this year for hitting numbers close to 100k deaths directly from overdoses. No other country in the world compares. This is a pretty good sign that the Trump presidency hasn’t done much good for the people in those declining regions that voted Trump in 2016.
Trump has gained support in low turnout demographics like the youth, blacks, and Latinos, while losing it in higher turnout demographics like whites and college-educated whites. This should be bad for Trump, but I agree with you that it still looks very close with no clear favorite.
An important aspect of the “Sailer Strategy” of turning the GOP into an implicit white identity party that’s overlooked is that it depended on weakening unions and pro-working class politics in the Democratic Party, leaving working class whites with no choice but to vote for racial and cultural affinity with the GOP. This united the professional, wealthy, aspirational whites in the GOP with working class whites in an implicitly white, anti-labor/pro-wealthy coalition.
But Trumpism’s appeals to the working class and economic populism will likely disrupt this implicitly white coalition by putting off some better off whites and appealing to some non-whites.
So, we should call a choice between a moron with Alzheimer and a moron without Alzheimer an election? Farce is a more appropriate term.
Dude, thank you! At my age, with time and money going more to noooooomerous children, I don’t buy much new music compared to my younger and single years. I hadn’t heard of Kaiser Chiefs, but went to their website and now am the proud owner of “Employment”, apparently one of their earliest albums — yeah, i still say “albums” — and the new album where your track came from, “Duck.”
Would be fun to get lit and see these guys in concert.
Trump has been an abject failure on all stated policy goals except lowering taxes. He is a mentally absent drone who was planted by the Russians for the express purpose of destroying the Old Americans. That’s why it’s extremely suspicious to see any self-proclaimed white people online supporting him — I immediately write these characters off as RusBots, because I don’t see any white people in real life anymore suporting Trump.
Everybody who has turned their brain on supports the Democrats now. The coronavirus lockdown has also done more to hamper the snotty minorities, anti-white business owners and their illegal alien stooges, and the hateful, useless-educated young women than any Republican could ever have hoped to. Meaning the Republican agenda of pro-business mercantilism is implicitly anti-white. I laugh at anyone who thinks Donald Trump has a snowball’s chance in Hell of being reelected. Joe Biden’s the pick of the Real Americans. Everybody else is a foreign criminal with no real roots in this country.
Do white felons vote Republican? I’d love to see any information on this, because surely it isn’t just standard hatred of poor whites that is common among the Karlin clan
I’m expecting a big Trump win, based on a possibly irrational optimism bias pushing me into a strong “shy Trump voter” take. Plausible that white suburbs of Philly, Minneapolis and Milwaukee to vote “against the riots”. You can’t understand just how much middle and upper-middle class people fear ghetto blacks in these Great Migration cities. How can Minnesotans not vote for Trump? Expecting Biden’s obvious senility and lack of campaigning to depress his bases turnout. It’s highly uncertain of course, mostly conjecture and there’s a lot of money to be won or lost for the bold in the prediction markets.
You have competing effects. Proximity to horrifying black ghettos will boost Trump support, but there are no horrifying black ghettos in heavily Latino CO, NV and NM. Trump could win these states and not even need the Industrial Midwest if only he could combine a big Latino boost AND had the benefit of middle class whites fearing looters, alas the whites there are safe.
You have four years of media lying about Trump going up against Trump’s remarkable competence in the face of incredible opposition, plus not starting any of the nuclear wars he was supposed to have done by now. US economy is recovering marvelously, but it will take years to get employment back to pre-wuhan levels. Does he get credit? Will he be seen as the man to fix the economy?
We also don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes in terms of voter fraud. The stakes are so high I have to think there’s a secret war going on on that front. Trump’s people can possibly do fraud too. We can beseech the Saints pray to God for this.
A change of policy AK?
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1264185780102103041?s=20
I wonder if Trump wants to lose the election, thus his encouragement of his supporters to vote in an inconvenient manner, which will discourage the less committed of them from voting at all.
“Never have so many been so upset over something of so little consequence” – Winston Churchill on the 2020 clown show.
For what it’s worth, Trump has very recently overtaken Biden in polling results in Arizona. A strong Law and order stance might be the difference for Trump to eek out a victory, and get traditional no-shows to show up . Unemployment rates are dramatically decreasing now too…We still have three debates to watch, and they do bump things up/down for a while. Biden has been blessed with the Coronavirus pandemic, and has been able to keep his slight lead overall by staying low. He’ll have to soon step out and face his nemesis head on…Trump did debate very successfully four years ago.”it [wil]l be very interesting to observe such a result play out.”
200 thousand dead (according to official data) not going to be a big issue???
I don’t understand something on this planet
Average Joe six-pack has a feeling there is something fake and gay about coronka mania
In Joe’s circle, no one seems to know anyone who was really sick ‘just from corona’ … but everyone seems to have a corona-might-be-hoax story … e.g., neighbour has an 86-year-old family member die of multiple illnesses, death cert arrives in the mail, surprising the family with ‘covid-19’ as cause of death, when no one at the hospital even mentioned it
CDC famously admitted 94% of those ‘200,000 USA covid dead’ had other serious health-ruining conditions … so it’s only about 12,000 ‘real’ dead on that basis
As Steve Sailer pointed out, the corona-mania-pushing establishment-tool Wikpedia, with its ‘list of famous covid-19 dead’, had over 80% names even he didn’t recognise … and nearly everyone was elderly, average age 78, about the same as average age of death in the general population
Where are those bodies of collapsed dead in the streets like in those Wuhan pictures early in the year? … For the average Joe it’s just unemployment and economic disaster, and mask and rule annoyance, for some big media possibly-bullshite story, more ‘climate change’ or something
To “eek” out is a very fitting Freudian 😀
It seems to me that a key factor missing in the analysis is the death of RBG and the opening of a seat at the Supreme Court. If Trump doesn’t manage to fill that seat (and he doesn’t have a big enough majority in the Senate to stop fillibustering) this can have a strong mobilisation effect on both sides, with Trump regaining the support of the white boomers, who would, I expect, strongly prefer any Trump pick to any Biden pick. After all, he did stick to his promise to nominate fairly moderate cons from the Federalist list on the previous two occasions.
Mobilisation is important because it wasn’t so much voting preferances that won 2016 but turnout, and, considering the Dems have alienated the same people they alienated four years ago, I would actually give the edge to Trump. Of course, October can still change everything.
There are many curious claims in this article. The Democrats are still the party of the poor, it is true Trump is doing better amongst Hispanics but there is no change with blacks.
Michigan looks a hold, as does Wisconsin, possible to flip Minnesota but Pennsylvania might be a loss, otherwise no change. The election will certainly be contested, the Democrats have made that clear.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/?attachment_id=20075727
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/?attachment_id=20075728
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/?attachment_id=20075739
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/?attachment_id=20075740
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/perceptions-of-trump-and-biden/
Also just for fun: does this represent riots or Corona-Chan?
Replace Joey with Vasya and you get Russia. In Germany, England, and Scandinavia, the local” Joes ” are just as stupid, or are they more sane?
how do they explain this picture?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EdN2oEhWsAAS9Qp?format=png&name=large
I just finished reading and old book on the cold war that was surprisingly interesting in that it provided many peripheral historical details in the course of the narrative.
I’m going to go out on a limb with this prediction and say Trump wins on the night, and declares victory. However, over the next few days the delayed mail in count strongly favours Biden — both real and fraud.
Trump has already claimed mail-in voting will produce massive fraud, in what I suspect is preparation for a scenario in which the above happens. Supporters on both sides will see the election as having been manipulated.
Chaos ensues.
No. Perhaps the moderating system temporarily broke down. Regardless, yet another ringing (if inadvertent) endorsement of the no-Anons policy.
Not that it matters, as I ban anons from commenting, but this is something that’s very easy to look up and confirm:
https://thefulcrum.us/voting/inmate-survey
PS. I’m not a Jew, dipshit.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/medical-bad_smell-odour-odor-passing_wind-farts-jlr110124_low.jpg
Trump will hold all the states he took in 2016. He might, with a little luck, get Minnesota. Don’t see him getting Nevada & NH, though he is currently ahead in both of these states.
My guess it the October surprise will be the Durham investigation finally gets around to charging Brennan, Comey, McCabe, Clapper, and in effect Obama and Biden. It should be enough to push Trump over the finish line. If not, then we no longer can say we have a Republic or and resemblance of Rule of Law.
Reagan was painted as a crazy outsider and there was a ‘moderate Republican’ run as a third party to candidate to stop him. More in common with Trump than not.
Being in prison does wonders for racial awareness.
Another great reason to leave this country, and go back home where you’ll find access to much better candidates. 🙂
https://i.insider.com/5134c5b46bb3f7431f00001c?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp
I sense people are getting tired of it, the masks, the wall to wall media coverage, the obvious economic wreckage over something that is clearly not the Black Plague Revisited.
You’re letting your disdain for average Americans colour your thinking too much. A vote for Biden is hardly a sign of intellect, as a vote for Trump is hardly a sign of lack of intellect. In any case, this election is more about feelings than intellect.
Trump will win the election, but he is likely to lose the White House. It’s going to be a long, cold winter.
You strongly underestimate the importance of incumbent advantage in American presidential elections. The line about Biden not being Hillary is also a farcical exaggeration of Biden’s strength vis-a-vis the witch.
Since 1912, only 5 incumbents have sought reelection and not gotten it:
Taft lost in 1912 because Roosevelt ran a third party campaign.
Hoover lost in 1932 due to a Depression that was more easily blamed on him than Corona is on Trump, and secondly, due to a serious primary challenge from Calvin Coolidge.
Ford lost in 1976. He was never elected to start with, plus Watergate left a gigantic stink on the GOP, and he had a massive challenge from Reagan in the primary. Ford nearly won anyhow.
Carter in 1980 had about a million things wrong: The economy was trashy, the American problem in Iran was a disaster, and Ted Kennedy seriously challenged him in the primary.
Bush lost in 1992 after taking on a big challenge from Pat Buchanan. Bush had also stabbed his base in the back far worse than anything Trump’s done. And he still would have won massively if not for Ross Perot (for example, if you do the math, Bush very probably would have won such states as Oregon and Maine if not for Perot)
Anyhow, the three most consistent and strongest predictors of such things are the betting markets, the state of Ohio, and the stock market.
1) The betting markets are about even, but the majority of bets and individual bettors are going for Trump.
2) Ohio, the most accurate bellwether possibly in all of world democracy, leans towards Trump pretty solidly.
3) The stock market is currently up, and, anyway, Trump can’t be easily blamed for the economic disaster since it was Democrats (and foolish bloggers cough cough) who endorsed the insane and totally unprecedented idea that it’s okay to arbitrarily close small businesses while allowing massive Globoschomo corporations to have their way.
Then again, we live in a mentally ill* Jewish-dominated country where the election is decided by the dumbest 15ish% of people in a couple of states – people who will have trouble making up their minds until the week before the election. So anything can happen. But I’ll be praying that those dumb people make the right decision and, frankly, I suspect they will. As much as I personally am cynical about Trump, it’s so extremely obvious that the globalist scum, who love infanticide, want him out of office – if for no other reason than that he’s done a pretty good job, better than most, in reducing infanticide. Also, he’s cut legal immigration in half (sadly, his campaign is too stupid to tell this to the American people, because many of them would be excited if he emphasized it).
*1 in 5 Americans are mentally ill
when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter, he had only 1% more in the popular vote. I had remembered it as a crushing defeat by a fed up populace
You should trust your memory more — Reagan had only 51% but was nearly 10 percentage points ahead of Carter:
Reagan 43,903,230 50.7%
Carter 35,480,115 41.0%
Anderson 5,719,850 6.6%
Has Trump done anything for the rust belt?
The new NAFTA/USMCA was designed with three products and three states in mind: steel in Pennsylvania, autos in Michigan, and dairy in Wisconsin.
Of course Biden will not renounce the USMCA, so voters in those states don’t have to vote for Trump to keep accruing its benefits. They should reward him for the new deal but they might not.
In Karlin’s map Maine’s 2nd district votes for Biden. If Trump wins that district and the rest of the map holds true, that means a wafer-thin 270-268 victory for Orange Man. Followed by the weepiest, whiniest meltdown of all meltdowns on the Left, one can hope…
I wonder how much of it might be explained simply by testosterone (within white males). Probably criminals have more to start, and then many take up weightlifting to protect themselves. And men who are liberal often have high-pitched voices.
Would be interesting to study the women in prison and compare. Offhand, I’d guess it might be the opposite effect. But perhaps not…
Substitute the “Joe” part and this is my experience.
The easiest ways to measure this are not in deaths, which can be disputed by some, or even excess mortality which is highly variable in any year……..but in looking at :
Number of people who have recovered from Coronavirus, but then are still suffering negative health effects in the medium to long-term after ( even if these health problems are not enough to classify them as disabled).
The flu you get, then recover back to condition you were before. It is not clear if it’s the same for coronavirus with the majority of hospitalised people.
US has about 7 million recorded cases. If there is 6.8 million recovered people but maybe 500k are left disabled or unable to work at previous capacity…..and another 1 million still suffer effects on their health in the medium-to long term – that would be enough for me to have justified a massive public health policy to reduce coronavirus – as we would be talking about 1% of the adult population physically affected, although I could understand people thinking it would need to be 2,3 even 4% for them to be interested and justifying closing down the economy and lifestyle.
If it is just 200k dead and nearly all the remaining 6.8 million completely fine – that would justify zero hysteria and no major policy – particularly when most of those deaths can be blamed on different factors
Add 200,000 quasi-corona dead to 100,000 dead from the opium-Jew and you get less than 0.1% of the US population. Perhaps not enough to really matter.
From a social perspective, the opium-Jew seems substantially worse since he loves killing young people. The QALYs lost should at a guesstimate be higher than for Corona-chan, quite possibly much higher.
There was this famous pic of Reagan shaking hands with President and Republican candidate Ford in 1976 R. convention. The usual title for that pic was that the Republicans immediately realised what a mistake it was for them to having chosen Ford instead.
So, which was it? Reagan the outsider or Reagan the Gov. of California and all that?
Reagan might have been considered an outsider when he was making political ads for, was that GM? That was when? 1965? Was he still an “outsider” in 1980?
Obama and Biden could in principle be charged. Now-public documents show they were in on it. (Well, we can dream, can’t we?)
Do the Mueller team as well for obstructing justice by wiping their many phones.
Though, I still don’t understand how a vote of felons in Florida would help Trump.
According to the survey nearly half of white inmates supported Trump, as an incumbent, which I take to mean <50%, and that a large part of the remaining white prisoner vote would go to Biden, now that he is the nominee.
The 2010 census , whites make up about 41% of the prison population of Florida. Blacks about 46%. Granted, blacks have lower engagement, and the racial composition of felons who served their sentences might be different. Felons would seem to favor Biden.
This is a nonsense article. Everything on the map colored pink and light red are in fact hard bright red. There is no evidence that Trump is losing in WI, MI, and PA. There is evidence that he will win NH, NV, and even MN. This all comes down to how blatantly does the Dem Party want to cheat? The real estimate is Trump keeps his 2016 electoral win and adds three new states to his column.
Trump will probably win, maybe even “bigly”, but I doubt that will be good for any trade deal, contrary to what most Brexiteers believe who seem to idolise Trump.
Despite comparisons from the left with Brexit and MAGA, in practice I don’t see Trump signalling much if any support for Brexit Britain. If anything his attitude has been downright apathetic, putting even starting negotiations with Britain off to his next term, a next term he may not even win.
We have already agreed and signed a post-Brexit deal with Japan, yet with Trump negotiations haven’t even started.
I really don’t understand why a lot of foreign right wingers idolise Trump so much and see him as “their guy”. The only foreign country that Trump acts in the interests of is Israel. Trump’s whole “schtick” is about dealing with foreign countries in a tough and uncompromising manner, Britain isn’t going to get a particularly favourable deal from him.
I wasn’t alive then but Reagan wasn’t an orthodox candidate I believe, there was a fair bit of establishment wariness, of course he was a consumate campaigner in a country with more favourable demographics. Then again I was trying to suggest reasons he only won by one point when he actually romped home.
Why do you feel compelled to insult Americans? Warts and all, I hope Americans did not fall low enough to have corrupt (before) and senile (today) old fart as their pick.
That picture is consistent with a spike in premature deaths in April-May and then a gradual drop to the average with 5-10k premature deaths a month. I would remind you that around 3 million people die in US each year.
The key term is ‘premature‘, there are deaths occurring that were accelerated by Covid. Sweden data shows 6-9 months earlier demise with an average age 81. Very sad. Life can be sad.
The data doesn’t show a general pandemic, not in US and not in Europe. If there were young, healthy dead from Covid the media would be full of stories about them – but there are very few and most have massive preexisting conditions, obesity in particular.
This would never be considered a pandemic in the past when real diseases killed people in much larger numbers. Shutting down the world and screwing the young people to prolong by a year longevity of 10-20% people in their 80’s is an odd choice for a civilization to make. But when run by a gerontocracy you will get odd results.
I am heading out, so I am putting on a helmet – one can never be too safe…:)
The winner – by a landslide – will be dear old Did Not Vote.
https://brilliantmaps.com/did-not-vote/
Reagan’s victory was really amazing, if you consider that conservative talk radio, as such, didn’t really exist back then.
Reagan’s imprint can even be felt to this day. I think that the left cringes whenever it thinks of his influence on youth of that day. He actually made it a viable option for conservative youth of the past to show some pride in their stances, as Republican political enclaves formed and spread throughout American college campuses. A lot of these boomers are still around and do vote. I don’t buy into the idea that most of these “college educated whites” are leaning towards Biden. Even if they are, we’ll see who they end up voting for.
FWIW anecdotally from people who have visited those places, I’ve heard of significant increase in Trump support in MN and WI as a result of the riots. Mr. Hack, has that been your experience when talking to people back home?
I suspect all polls underestimate Trump’s support by 2-4%. Given that Trump can easily lose the popular vote by 3% and still win the election (Democrats will just run up the score in CA), if he polls within 6% he has a strong chance of winning.
I yield to no one in my contempt for Trump’s duplicity toward Whites but this post glows in the dark.
Biden is no more a solution than Trump and isn’t even preferable on the dubious basis of acceleration.
Getting people to believe voting even matters in America beyond your local and maybe some state races is the real trick and cruelest joke.
Your local sheriff, prosecutors and judges are going to be a lot more important to your next four years than who wins the Sleepy vs. Orange Judas “most important election ever” (until the next one, that is).
Well, you’re trolling, but I appreciate your passion and flair for writing.
But any American with brains turned on — of any race — is either supporting Trump as the (arguably and barely) lesser of two evils if they live in a swing State, voting third party as I am here in Mexifornia, or staying home.
You hit the nail on the head, Exile.
Best move is to relocate to a jurisdiction where the mayor, police chief, county sheriff, county commissioners, and prosecutors will stand with you if you need to use a firearm to protect your life or that of your family or neighbors against aggression.
Not enough such jurisdictions any more, to be sure, and for some of us it is very difficult to find a job in our field that pays adequately in those places.
We know a family where the man is staying in his increasingly hostile, unsafe big city for his high-paying job, but moving his wife and children to a jurisdiction with very different culture, politics, and chance of being supported by the local “authorities” if they have to put down an attacker. He has permission to work online and be with his family part of the time, and he has another relative (also armed and likeminded) moving with the wife and kids.
My wife and I are considering the same course of action. Of course, this depends on having a job that can be done well online, getting permission to work online part of the time, and having the money to fly between the locations.
There was wariness, and a lot of “intellectual” guffawing and derision about the Bedtime for Bonzo actor, but he had for years demonstrated he was a serious character and had been a successful California governor, traits that Trump has never been able to effectively demonstrate.
Trump has on many occasions shown he is a serious and thoughtful president, but the MSM has done everything in its power to downplay those occasions, and Trump’s own blustery or unpolished tweets have only helped to reinforce the constant derision he has received in the MSM.
Excellent points all.
I wish I had voted for Perot in 1992. He had a real chance to win. But I was young and ideologically libertarian at the time….
It’s like Putin once said. You sit down in your office on day one and in comes a very clever man in a suit carrying a briefcase full of papers. He explains how to carry out National Project A. He will of course start on in immediately but it will be slow and difficult. Results may not be visile for 10 years. An hour later the next man in suit arrives to talk about project B. This is why presidents’ need to extend their terms of office.
Meanwhile Brexit actually was done. The consequences are about t become clear.
1- All mail-in ballots will be struck, and the in-person winner will receive the Electoral College delegates. Given Trump voters are not masked sheeple, this will lead to a Trump win.
What about the states that already use only mail in ballots and have been for years now? Oregon, where I live comes to mind.
Gotta go with Borean Bolsonaro for the alliteration.
The last time that I spoke with my sister and her husband over the phone about politics, they were not strongly committed to voting for Trump, even though they’ve been pro-Republican for most of their lives. Their children (whom they live with) are strongly pro-Trump, at one time strongly identifying with the “Tea Party” folks and also being very srongly gun-right advocates.
I was somewhat surprised to see a large add recently placed within the “Ukrainian Weekly” No. 30 July 24, pgs 12-13) that included hundreds of names of prominent Ukrainians as signatories that are supporting Biden this time around, including our old friends Aexander Motyl and Peter Pasiecky (mainstay contributor to Motyl’s blog). Several names of Minnesotans I knew and grew up with were also included as Biden supporters. For the life of me, I don’t understand how any Ukrainian could support Biden, especially after his son’s dirty financial shenanigan’s in Ukraine? Of course, the old man never did see anything slightly amiss with his son’s dealings in Ukraine, as do none of his supporters?
My borther-in-law’s brother owns a bar in that part of town in Mpls where the riots took place. Although I haven’t personally talked to him, I can imagine that he’s a “law and order” sort of guy who’ll vote for Trump.
“Add” should be spelled “Ad” above. I was recently called out for misspelling “eak” as “eek”. 🙂
Oops, “brother” not “borther” too!
Unless it damages meaning, no one should be aggravated by minor grammar issues. None of us have copy editors.
Of course… Some errors damage meaning.
PEACE
http://www.tengrrl.com/bsm/inked_in/2012/baby-seals.jpg
So far, I think that my punctuation is Okay? 🙂
Thank you for the clarification. I’m happy that my memory actually prevailed. The book from which I took the factoid was a university type text in it’s seventh edition (America, Russia And The Cold WAR 1945-1992) by a Walter LaFeber from Cornell.
Trump wins easily, as he should.
I have detailed reasons for this before, but some are obvious.
i) Incumbency advantage.
ii) Third party voters in a non-incumbency election (2016) move towards the incumbent in 2020. See 1996 and 2004, relative to the elections immediately before them, for more on this.
iii) There is no enthusiasm for Biden. He is just the vehicle of anti-Trump sentiment.
iv) Blacks don’t see Harris as black (or at least black enough).
AK knows a lot for a foreigner who hasn’t lived in the US for a while, but is not truly up to date on the pulse of America.
What would happen if the election results are a very close match and neither side accepts defeat?
That’s where it all seems to be headed. I think that the Supreme Court gets involved at some point and sorts it all out. This is what happened in a similar situation when Bush II defeated Al Gore.
You got the news that a “Satanic” transsexual libertarian got voted into the Republican candidacy of sheriff somewhere in US of A? 😀
I actually read the fellow’s statement. He or she actually got the libertarian humor or self righteousness. 😀
They will just send the secret police (the FBI hate crimes enforcement unit) in if the local man gives an opinion they don’t like; just as with the ‘jogger’ case.
Here’s an interesting observation for you lads who don’t think Trump will have a very strong, very powerful victory:
Today he’s campaigning in Newport News VA, a navy town in a well populated, reasonably prosperous region of Virginia with lots of old whites who remember the days when Americans were taught to think that George Washington and Tommy Jefferson were heroes. He’s rallying the prole and boomer hordes.
Why would he be wasting time in such a long shot state if the campaign were not reasonable confident of taking PA and WI? Clearly the campaign think it’s worth reaching for a big ‘mandate’ win. Now they could be trippin’, it’s happened before, but the assumption should be they have a clue what they’re doing.
It’s so tiring hearing about the all-important black vote. Here’s a little secret — they don’t vote. And many that do can’t decipher the ballot once they get to the polling station so they fill them out incorrectly. Maybe they vote in the wrong column or fail to fill in the circle completely. Yes, being high on purple drank has this effect.
Mayor Wilhelm won in NYC with only 25% of eligible voters actually casting a ballot. Blacks will vote when one of their own is a candidate, e.g. Obama. But when they’re not emotionally roused they just stay home, or break things. Hispanics are barely better.
Merely a decade (and a half?) ago VA was soild R. 😀 The Times they are a-changin.
I remember that in 2008 I was listening to Rush Limbaugh and at one point he’s suggesting that Rhode Island was in play because they were having campaign events there. 😀
US is a very polarized country today. This could mean more violence.
Bad Newz? Trump will be lucky if the secret service can prevent him from getting pestered to buy someone’s mix-tape from out of the trunk of a 93 Crown Vic.
What’s the record of the incumbent president, or party of a leaving president that has served two terms, if there is a recession in an election year? I have a hunch that it’s not so great. Still, this is not an ordinary recession I suppose.
I expect a rather more decisive Biden win of around seven to as much as nine points, with Biden winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina (and perhaps Georgia and Texas). Consider Reagan v. Carter, an extremely similar election which Reagan (previously the oldest general election candidate in history) won after the shortest pre-COVID recession on record because he blew out the suburbs while Carter did very well among Blacks and Hispanics while still keeping strong White working class support -he still won Georgia, Rhode Island, and West Virginia, after all. Reagan in 1980 just barely won Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Arkansas. Naturally Reagan did well in his home state of California, losing just three counties there. Biden’s support among college educated Whites and the importance of a demographically changing electorate should not be underestimated, in my view. There was also a common view in 1980 that Reagan was “too old”, that the recession and the Iran hostage crisis didn’t matter that much, and that the election would still be a competitive race. The pre-election debate apparently turned a competitive race favoring Reagan into a rout.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/1980nationwidecountymapshadedbyvoteshare.svg
There will be no debates in this election: Dems can’t afford to let Biden debate, his Alzheimer would be too obvious. He already publicly mixed up his sister and his wife, and said that 200 million Americans died. Besides, Dems and their senile nominee lost a lot by supporting criminal riots.
One Trump weakness is handling of the epidemic: it was the worst in the world, as Feds (and governments at all other levels) offered no leadership whatsoever. The greatest Trump weakness is unprecedented recession, artificially manufactured by covid scaremongers (most of them Dems, but are the voters smart enough to take that into account?).
https://youtu.be/KdJ8SDOFrdw
There are over three thousand counties or their equivalent in the US. One NAXALT does not mean anything. If anything, your example demonstrates that someone with sane normal politics could more easily have won the same seat, making that county safer for White people currently being jailed for self-defense throughout America.
The key term is ‘premature‘, there are deaths occurring that were accelerated by Covid. Sweden data shows 6-9 months earlier demise with an average age 81.
We are now at least six months into the pandemic. If what you say is true, the total of excess deaths since March should be lower than the official death total. That doesn’t seem to be the case:
Official death toll (USA): 207,310
Excess deaths (USA): 274,055
I don’t doubt that COVID is killing some people who would have died anyway over the next six to nine months. But I don’t think such people are a majority of the deaths or even a large minority.
Excess deaths could be caused by a number of factors: lack of medical care due to corona shutdowns, economic impact, isolation, etc… Given that close to 3 million people die on average in US, the excess deaths minus corona would a variance of 2 to 3 % – you can see that kind of variance in data each decade.
If corona lowers life expectation for elderly and sick by 6 to 9 months, we will see a permanent increase in death rates and lower life expectancy. I said that was sad and a setback – but it cannot be the only thing a civilization is based on.
There are a number of other policies and rules that would increase longevity at the expense of other things that we have not implemented. Making wearing a helmet compulsory for everyone would lower injuries and prolong average lifespan. Banning fried food, over-eating, sharp objects, risky sports – all of those would increase longevity. Why is corona so special? It is clearly not a pandemic, it is an epidemic with relatively limited impact. Why suddenly the zero tolerance?
” I don’t understand how any Ukrainian could support Biden, especially after his son’s dirty financial shenanigan’s in Ukraine?”
My guess is that Ukrainian Americans care more about American domestic politics than about Ukraine. Probably because they have more ‘skin in the game’ within the sphere of American domestic politics.
If both parties have a equal numbers of Electoral College votes, then i assume the party with majority of the popular vote will have a stronger sense of legitimacy.
You see, “throughout America” the sheriffs are not like that, but “throughout America” things are not A-OK, yes?
You see it, but you are not seeing it.
I remember Sarah Palin in maybe 2012 said that Nothing can’t be fixed by another election in the good US of A. It’s of course not a new idea but hearing it repeated was still nice, at the time, which was eight years ago.
Or do you, any of you, really think that, whoever wins this time, everything will be fine again, that all of the badness are superficial, that they will go away when the votes are cast?
Even still, if domestic politics is more important among this segment of voters, you’d think that they’d be even more drawn towards Trump. Until the pandemic struck, the economy and the markets were humming along beautifully, better than ever. You’ve got to give Trump a greenlight as being the better bet on reviving it once again, as it already seems to be doing. Taxes, something that hits everybody in the wallet, well Trump implemented a huge tax break as soon as he got into office. Do you really think that Biden, if elected, would not raise taxes sooner than later? The vast majority of Ukrainian-Americans that I know are strongly law and order folks whom you would not expect to be endlessly crying about BLM either. Of course, the signature page of one ad doesn’t in itself indicate how this segment of the voting public will end up mostly voting.
This comment should have been in reply to Ratus Norwegius, #86.
Learn to spell, OK?
I’m not saying everything will be fine by an enormous stretch – I’m a Fifth Political Theory guy ala Nick Griffin – Whites in the U.S. are being forced to build a parallel society from the ground up in the mold of Soviet-era “un-persons.” But local politics is the one place where you can still make your votes count and Whites have the numbers if they consolidate to flex some muscle on that level.
Everything above that at the state and federal level is so thoroughly co-opted and fire-walled that it’s a waste of our energy and resources to chase saviors from those tiers.
There’s only one party that ballot harvests from the morons and that’s the Democratic party, the party of women and niggers. The “elite” ie the cucks who vote the way their slut wives tell them may not vote for Trump but they weren’t likely to anyway.
No, Trump has lost votes among Upper Midwestern whites because his campaign promises were flim-flam. The supposedly “razor thin” margins in the upper Midwest states and Pennsylvania were only narrowed by late count fraud, the reason Hillary didn’t want to concede on election night. Indeed, if fewer states had been called (and there was a refusal to call Michigan for weeks) she wouldn’t have conceded. That is the game plan for the upcoming election.
Trump has played up the Brad Parscale / Jared Kushner “let’s patronize and mock our goyim pets” style campaign, and moved hard away from the winning Lewandowski / Steve Bannon formula. This will also hurt him in the upper Midwest.
The back-up plan for the Zionists was to unleash the rioters. There’s a good chance it will work.
The pollsters are performing for the twitter mob, they are not trying to be objective, no matter how much they pretend otherwise.
“Letting the felons vote actually favors Trump, because the low IQ vote for him; although tons of Black felons will vote for Biden, the effect from White felons who favor Trump will be bigger.”
One the Reps put so many rules on ex felons voting I doubt even with Soro’s money many of them will vote. I think on balance it hurts more then helps because lots of those felons are snowbirds that are registered to vote in MI, Pa and WI despite living half of the time in FL because of the law. Trump won Fl much easier then those three and now he will get more “wasted votes” in FL that he needs in MI, Pa, and WI thanks to the new law.
I thought that I already paid my penance within comment #63. Is there more that I’m guilty of? 🙂
Well, yes, ending a sentence with a preposition, for example.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1309173550914338819?s=20
Unless you think that this blogsite is some sort of a peer reviewed research journal, I think that I’m treading on safe ground here. Besides, it’s rare that I do this.
More often, I also like to start a sentence with the conjunctions “and’ and “but” that may seem to be incorrect, but actually can be done correctly:
Any other possible issues?
My prediction is a narrow Trump loss. He’ll get Ohio and Florida(and do better than Romney 2012) but lose Penn.
A lot of them aren’t eligible because they haven’t completed all the terms of their sentence, including financial obligations such as fines, restitution, etc. It’s doubtful that Bloomberg can pay off all or even most of these obligations in 6 weeks because, although he’s got the money, the logistics of finding these convicts and paying the obligations at the courthouse are daunting. Also the Florida AG has pushed back against this unethical and legally dubious obvious vote buying.
A change in FCC policy during his time in office enabled the beginning of conservative talk radio as we know it today.
The Virus of All Viruses is a gift from the gods for big government and the New World Order. A convenient excuse to shut down independent small businesses and public gatherings, to test how far “free” citizens can be driven by fear to lay down their freedom. The Dictatorship of the Mask is obedience training for the new breed of sheep.
“Refusing to end a sentence with a preposition is a rule up with which I will not put.” — Winston Churchill
https://www.unz.com/article/donald-trumps-platinum-plan-for-black-america/
El Murid isn’t a good source on American politics (or most/all things).
https://kireev.livejournal.com/1787136.html
You mean copying what the opposition has already been observed doing?
Has there been a multiple-slate submission since Hawaii’s first vote in 1960? Things are a little tighter than in 1876.
The VP is not allowed to break a tie in a contingency election sent to the Senate. That hasn’t happened since 1837 anyway. His role in counting electors is mostly ceremonial. What could he do to put his thumb on the scale?
Biden just joked (presumably) of his “180 years” of experience in DC. But count back that far, and you get William Henry Harrison, long the oldest candidate ever. He was elected, and served– i.e., lived– 31 days. Bad omen, Joe.
I want to get a Biden-Harris sign, slice it in half, and reconstitute it as “Say no to Harris-Biden!” Because this is the real issue.
There are three periods to consider when it looks like a candidate might not survive:
1) Before the election
2) Between the election and the meeting of the electors
3) Between that meeting and the certification in Congress
#1 happened in 1912, #2 in 1872. We thus have precedent, and the procedure is clear. (Both candidates lost anyway.) #3 is murkier; it has never happened, and there are varying opinions on what is to be done.
After the votes are accepted, then post-Inauguration rules are in effect. The replacement is just “-elect” for a few days.