Warming Making Russians Live Longer

I wrote about how this winter was the warmest on record in Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, and many other places in Russia.

This is having salubrious effects on public health: Alcohol Deaths Plummet as ‘Warmest Winter’ Hits Russia

Some 619 people died from alcohol poisoning in January 2020, down 37.3% from January 2019, Russia’s National Center for Alcohol Policy Development said Thursday. The past winter was the warmest since records began in 1891, Russia’s Hydrometeorology Center announced the same day.

My regular readers will know that alcohol consumption has long been a very strong contributing factor to many other causes of mortality in Russia. So it is no accident that according to preliminary stats, all-cause mortality fell by 4.9% y/y this January, including a near 10% fall in heart disease deaths and a 18% fall in homicides.

January probably wasn’t an anomaly, since according to blogger zemfort1983, regional Rosstat divisions report similar numbers for February (6.8% decline mortality for nine regions y/y in Feb vs. 5.8% for those same regions in Jan).

Should these improvements continue for the rest of the year – and if Corona doesn’t torpedo everything – Russia’s life expectancy for 2020 should be close to 75 years (up from 73.4 years in 2019), which is no longer that far away from the US or the V4 (78-79 years).

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.


Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.


Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.


  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

  2. Aleksander says

    Oh brother. Why is it when we have a mild winter it’s “climate change”, but if it snows like hell, then it’s just “the weather”?

    Anatoly, give it up already.

  3. and if Corona doesn’t torpedo everything

    So what is the exact situation with Corona in Russia today? It does, after all share a large border with China.

  4. Oh brother. Why is it when we have a mild winter it’s “climate change”, but if it snows like hell, then it’s just “the weather”?

    Greta would like a word with you in private save a few antifa gendarmes.

  5. So what is the exact situation with Corona in Russia today? It does, after all share a large border with China.

    7 exactly sick (of them 2 Chinese and 1 Italian, the rest of the Russian tourists returned from abroad). Several dozen are in hospitals under suspicion. More than a thousand more under house arrest. In St. Petersburg, the hostel where the Italian student lived is now blocked, and 700 students in it are like prisoners.

    The border with China is closed, but the real danger is not from China but from Europe. In Moscow people returning from Germany and Italy were ordered to be kept in isolation

  6. LondonBob says

    Actually snowed here in London two weeks ago Monday morning.

  7. Warming Making Russians Live Longer

    For now anyway. What’s making the weather warmer could very well have a blow-back effect in terms of life expectancy.

  8. anonymous coward says

    Careful with that thoughtcrime. Don’t you know about the (((consensus)))?

    (Even if you don’t, the consensus sure knows about you!)

  9. I’m sure you’ve looked into this–I assume people really do drink to feel warm in the winter?

    It’s pretty obvious global warming is long-term good for Russia–the country’s long been crippled by its climate. I’ve thought about a ‘global warming portfolio’ involving holding Canadian and Scandinavian funds for the long term, but have been nervous about buying a Russian index due to corruption. What do you think?

  10. Guillaume Tell says

    Global warming is gentle and benevolent, and should be generally encouraged.

  11. Felix Keverich says

    Corruption is actually bullish. Corporate governance practices can be expected to improve in the long-run, so that’s your upside. Conversely, Scandinavia has nowhere to go, but down.

    The real danger of investing in Russia as a foreigner is US sanctions. You might be forced to liquidate your Russian assets at a sub-optimal price.

  12. I was thinking some sort of index ETF, but good point.

  13. Belarusian Dude says

    The vast majority of Russia’s border with China doesnt need protection because its wilderness. Unless bears crows and tigers can transmit corona its not a threat. The issie is always air and sea travel.

  14. Does anyone have detailed temperature data of Yakutsk for 1910? Would be interesting to compare them to 1970, 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2019.