When Blank Slatists Project

Blank slatists make economic projections:

Russia overtaking Japan would be a REALLY tall order by 2030, even on PPP measures. It requires Russia grow an average 3% points more than Japan until 2030.

Not absolutely impossible, but extremely unlikely, short of Japan’s debt bubble unwinding in catastrophic fashion.

Otherwise…

Brazil, Indonesia – Virtually impossible

Turkey – This is entering “WTF are they smoking” territory. Would require the average Turk become as rich as the average American.

Egypt – Implies Egyptian per capita incomes equalizing with those of the world’s most technologically complex economy.

Anatoly Karlin is a transhumanist interested in psychometrics, life extension, UBI, crypto/network states, X risks, and ushering in the Biosingularity.

 

Inventor of Idiot’s Limbo, the Katechon Hypothesis, and Elite Human Capital.

 

Apart from writing booksreviewstravel writing, and sundry blogging, I Tweet at @powerfultakes and run a Substack newsletter.

Comments

  1. German_reader says

    Egypt is expected to grow to 128 million by 2030? Aren’t there already serious problems with water supply?
    But I suppose things will work out fine when Egypt’s surpassed Japan as an economic powerhouse.

  2. Has Garett Jones commented on these economic projections yet?

  3. Are these the AI/automation numbers? Nuclear war and the dollar becoming super-inflated?

    Blank slatists don’t invest like they believe in blank slatism.

    I think it would be amusing if pols had to sign off on their own predictions. The different racial caucuses in the US each evaluating their own regions of the world and also the others. Black caucus, Nigeria and Mexico, for instance. Hispanic caucus, Mexico and Nigeria.

    I wonder if intelligence agencies have their own internal estimates and if those of the CIA are seriously pozzed.

  4. You will just have to adjust yourself to Turkish economic supremacy, but I suppose that based on all the successful Turks in Germany, you should already be prepared for this development.

    But what if Merkel lets in more Turks and Syrians (read: new Germans)? Then surely the tables will be turned, and Turkey will be Germany’s second fiddle!

  5. Egypt will soon be becoming a lot richer though, just because they discovered vast amounts of offshore gas.

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Egypts-Giant-Zohr-Gas-Field-Boosts-Production-Six-fold.html

    But with their young population, high birthrate – I doubt political stability will become easier there.

  6. The Big Red Scary says
  7. anonymous coward says

    GDP is not wealth.

    It’s a trivially easy monetary trick to raise Russian GDP. It’s not gonna happen for political reasons, not because Russia is “poor”, whatever that means.

  8. Well its not entirely blank slatist, I don’t see Nigeria in that list, and that population is projected to overtake the USA by 2050 I think. Same applies to other sub Saharan African states, why did they not make this list?

  9. reiner Tor says

    They expect the African convergence, too, but they don’t expect them to grow faster than China did over the past fourty years. Their base is simply too low.

  10. full spectrum legalization of drugs in Brazil would make that aim possible. otherwise, only VERY hardcore libertarian economic policies could (so, virtually impossible).

  11. German_reader says

    Egypt will soon be becoming a lot richer though

    That probably means that the military-dominated elite will get richer, for the average Egyptian it will just mean increased dissatisfaction. I doubt this will end well.

  12. Too many people. You need to be like the UAE, Kuwait, or Qatar to become rich. Not like Iran.

    BTW, there seems to be a downturn in Dubai. Interesting to make long term prognostications.

  13. It is curious to me that they have Turkey ‘s economy exceeding Brazil’s in size. Brazil has a bigger economy and a lot more people.

  14. Felix Keverich says

    Turkey – This is entering “WTF are they smoking” territory. Would require the average Turk become as rich as the average American.

    Egypt – Implies Egyptian per capita incomes equalizing with those of the world’s most technologically complex economy.

    Well, they are saying it outright, they expect every country to converge to the same level of per capita GDP, as “the divide between the advanced and developing economies continues to close”. So there you have it: Egypt is set to converge on Japan. 🙂

    This is economic forecasting based on anti-racism.

  15. Well, maybe they should start using these monetary tricks instead of amassing useless fx reserves that only serve foreign investors eventually. It is mind-boggling that a country which enjoys a wide budget surplus continues to intentionally suffocate the domestic market for the sake of increasing fx reserves!
    increasing govt expenditures and lowering the unreasonably astronomical interest rates will probably skyrocket the growth. It is in fact very impressive that the country is running 1.5% growth with such contractionary fiscal and monetary policies.

  16. Swarthy Greek says

    Lower interest rates= more inflation. Still, i agree the budget rule is retarded. Extra funds from oil and gas should be reinvested through sovereign funds inthe russian economy to increase Research funding and develop infrastructure.

  17. lower interest rates also mean more investment which leads eventually to increasing production and decreasing inflation. When supply is low, the interest rate will have to be so high to suppress demand and inflation, but this means you are trapped at low income just for the sake of short term low inflation. the goal should be to encourage increasing the supply level ( increasing productivity by investment) which would lead to both higher income and lower inflation.

  18. Thank the Good Lord the world is not coming to an end.

    (Brazil #6)

    1965 – My 10th grade social studies teacher, “Brazil will surpass the US as a superpower in your lifetime.”

  19. Brazil, Indonesia – Virtually impossible

    Are you sure? Brazil has already been the world’s sixth biggest economy in the past, and not so long ago at that.

    Brazil becomes sixth biggest economy
    Financial Times, March 6, 2012
    https://www.ft.com/content/e23a2b34-678e-11e1-b4a1-00144feabdc0