The Yarns of Valery Solovei

Here’s the predictive record of a certain Russian “pundit” who is constantly quoted as an authority by Western hacks:

  • 2013: “Putin system degenerating and will be swept away”.
  • 2016: Russians turn against Putin in 2017.
  • 2016: Putin may be about to quit due to illness.
  • 2017: “The last time I felt like this was at the end of the Soviet Union”.
  • 2019: “Political crisis” in 2020, leading to revolution by 2022. Or even 2021.
  • February 2020: Russia could invade Belarus “in the coming days”.
  • September 2020: Claims to belong to a secret international organization “more powerful than the FSB” which protects him.

Suffice to say, if you were a serious journalist, you would think twice before reporting such a pundit’s latest “revelations” – especially not without adding this quite important context of failed predictions. And if social media was truly concerned about “fact checking”, as opposed to partisan-driven censorship, it would be attaching warning labels to all of his pronouncements.

But Western journalists are not serious, they are sensationalist, Russiagate-peddling hacks whose disinformation about Russia is promoted and enabled by Big Tech so long as their narrative syncs with elite interests.

So of course Valery Solovei is their leading rent-a-quote for the latest on the Putler regime’s imminent collapse.

And Valery Solovei, to give credit where credit’s due, is an accomplished spoofer who perfectly timed his latest “leak” on Putin’s latest illness – Parkinson’s now, stroke in 2015, the true old timers will also recall the sarcoma of the spine rumors back in 2012 – to coincide with newly proposed laws to give Russian ex-Presidents lifetime immunity. This even allowed the hacks at The Daily Mail to quote Bryan MacDonald’s story on that development to implicitly support Solovei’s conspiracy theories.

These reports have also been explicitly denied by the Kremlin.

And in any case, as I have pointed out, Putin probably has very good longevity genes (mother, father, and grandfather all lived into their late 80s), a healthy lifestyle, and access to elite healthcare. So by any reasonable actuarial logic he can be expected to live into his 90s. Yes, accidents or freak illnesses can certainly happen. But you should not expect to hear that from Valery Solovei. And even if he eventually manages to predict something, in all likelihood it will be in the same sense that a broken clock is correct twice a day.

But who cares about all that context? The disinformation clearly works. The New York Post story – their Trumpist transgressions a couple of weeks ago now presumably forgiven – is currently second on /r/worldnews, probably the world’s most popular international politics forum.

Even so, it’s worth noting down who writes these stories, as well as who takes them at face value, and adjust your evaluations of them correspondingly.

Comments

  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

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  2. Korenchkin says

    Part of Vladys initial image forging propaganda was his healthy lifestyle, contrasting with Yeltsins shambling zombie look

  3. Felix Keverich says

    The disinformation clearly works.

    Is the objective here to brainwash the Western populace, or have this disinformation slip into Russian online media? What do you gain by convincing redditors that Putin is on his last legs and secretly runs the world at the same time?

  4. The Spirit of Enoch Powell says

    But who cares about all that context? The disinformation clearly works. The New York Post story – their Trumpist transgressions a couple of weeks ago now presumably forgiven – is currently second on /r/worldnews, probably the world’s most popular international politics forum.

    Sane non-Western governments would be wise to block plebbit in their respective nations if they wish for their population to remain spiritually healthy, the mods on most of the big subreddits are most likely connected to Western intelligence agencies.

    The dangerous thing about Reddit is that it has a huge sway on the bourgeois/middle class of a nation, because of the format of the website.

  5. You don’t have to be Alex Jones to evaluate Joe Biden’s health. That much dementia cannot be hidden.

  6. The Spirit of Enoch Powell says

    AK: OT

  7. Maïkl Makfaïl says

    We might ask ourselves some questions regarding Putin ‘s decline in mental capability though, considering the growing imbecility of his domestic and foreign policies in the last 10 years and of his last comments about islamist attacks in France when he seemed to say that Charlie Hebdo and the terrorists were equally to blame.

  8. Possibly true, but with that example in particular – why does Putin need to cater to French sensibilities about freedom of expression (which are selectively applied anyway) over Islamic ones? What does he owe Macron?

  9. Shortsword says

    I don’t think there is a motive here. It’s just a consequence of journalism about Russia being low quality and lacking scrutiny.

  10. It is basically the dual part of the propaganda mechanism about Russia, which works just as when the USSR existed: first, install fear by mentioning how “powerful” and “cunning” and “all-pervasive” your enemy is, that if we lower your guard only a little bit we will be overrun and defeated and invaded; then, to reassure our superiority, that we are the best, we are unbeatable, that the enemy is about to crumble and will soon disappear. Patrick Armstrong explained it very well:
    https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2020/10/30/russophrenia-or-how-a-collapsing-country-runs-the-world/

  11. https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Charlie%20Hebdo%20cover.jpg?itok=Ev6IpPit

    Nous n’avons plus la France que nous avions…

    https://youtu.be/uDhj7O4WMIo

    French people are trampled upon and debased by their cosmopolitan globalizing elites.

  12. Felix Keverich says

    Pretty sure nobody in the West expected Soviet Union to crumble. It came as utter shock to them. Russian Federation on the other hand was predicted to collapse since day 1.

    I still don’t understand the ubiquity of disinformation about Russia in Western media. It’s pathological. No other country gets lied about quite as much.

  13. The Spirit of Enoch Powell says

    This phenomenon may subside as the Cold War era analysts and military officers are replaced by a new cadre, the new cadre being more fearful/antagonistic towards China instead. It is mostly boomers who are drawn into this Russia thing, I don’t think young people really see Russia as a threat.

  14. It seemed a little incredible – is there anyone other than Mr. Solovei corroborating this rumor?

  15. Caspar von Everec says

    Most reddit mods and admins are either trannies or mossad agents. It should be banned from every country

  16. Most reddit mods and admins are either trannies or mossad agents.

    either or

  17. The New York Post story – their Trumpist transgressions a couple of weeks ago now presumably forgiven – is currently second on /r/worldnews, probably the world’s most popular international politics forum.

    It’s sad that a board moderated by (until recently) the world’s most wanted pedophile is so influential.

  18. Verymuchalive says

    And in any case, as I have pointed out, Putin probably has very good longevity genes (mother, father, and grandfather all lived into their late 80s), a healthy lifestyle, and access to elite healthcare. So by any reasonable actuarial logic he can be expected to live into his 90s.

    Interesting. I thought a number of years back, you were claiming Putin was visibly aging and whatever. ( I would ferret out the post, if I could find it ) Is my memory defective. or have have you altered your opinion ?

  19. John Brennan told us we’re half way to a Russian American reset:

    https://twitter.com/johnbrennan/status/1314587438568833025

    I think Mr Brennan knows what he is talking about.

    Putin will leave as soon as he receives warranties of safety for him and his family. He is fed up with the whole thing and have been for a number of years already.

    USA needs to pull Russia out of collaborating with China. So there’s a convergence of interests between the globalized West and at least a part of the Russian oligarchy.

  20. Good to know you take Solovei seriously.

  21. I take Brennan and Putin seriously. Putin has said several times that he was tired of it all like “a slave on a galley “. And they will vote for immunity from criminal prosecution for former heads of state in Russia pretty soon. Why would that be I wonder?

  22. Presidential immunity laws are not unusual, including in the West. If Putin is undecided about whether to retire in 2024, introducing such a law now is as good a time as any.

    That seems a much more reasonable take than giving credence to a serial fantasist and the daydreams of a cianigger.

  23. Who told you that I care about what Solovei said or didn’t say? All I know about the guy is that his head is as bald as an egg, which seems humorous given his bird-sounding family name.

    Bear with me for a couple of minutes, and I will clarify why I think that VVP will leave as soon as he reasonably can.

    VVP wants to be respected and remembered as a Great Leader, but:

    1) Russian economy is going through troubled waters (anemic GDP growth since 2012).

    2) The regional and local budgets are being cut (marked loss in fiscal earnings).

    3) Russian MIC is losing funding (no Armata in sight).

    4) Ruble keeps falling down (scaling new lows).

    5) All the while Russian Central Bank has its printers go BRRR (they have printed several trillion).

    6) Gazprom is in deep trouble (might become profitless as it loses European market shares).

    7) Russian peak oil is announced in the coming years (2035, but might be sooner)..

    8) The outflows of hard currency into the offshore have continued unabated (hundreds of billions of US $ have gone West since 2014 and beginning of sanctions).

    9) A significant part of Russian gold reserves has been sold this year (first time since the early 2000)..

    10) Russia is pressured in its near abroad (Belarus, Armenia, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and of course Ukraine)

    Several of these problems are a direct result of the problematic relationship between Russian comparador extractive oligarchic elites (a collective Ozero Cooperative) and their globalized Western senior partners. The Western partners think these pesky Russian nouveau riche tycoons cost too much and are misbehaving. OTOH Russian oligarchs cannot enjoy their Courchevel escapades anymore, their wives and mistresses are crying for Galleries Lafayette, their yachts are deprived of entering the Bermudas and Turk and Cocos ports, this is all so annoying!

    But as soon as VVP retires, it will be love and tenderness again between them and the West. Of course VVP is afraid of ending like Milosevic and seeing his sons, daughters and grandchildren stripped of the wealth that he tirelessly acquired since his Sobchak’s sidekick days. But the globalized West is also afraid of loosing it to China. And as soon as Putin leaves, Russian foreign policy will be reverted towards cooperation with the West and providing assistance against the Yellow Peril. After all these pesky Chinese are gaining too much ground in Central Asia.

    So there is a commonality of interests here.

    If they warrant him his safety and his family members ‘ wellbeing he will accept a bargain. He’s a clever man: even if he doesn’t have Parkinson’s, he will fake it if need be.

  24. Felix Keverich says

    And as soon as Putin leaves, Russian foreign policy will be reverted towards cooperation with the West and providing assistance against the Yellow Peril.

    How are they going to handle Crimea issue in your imagination?

  25. You really think that Crimea is as important to the globalized West as competing with China is?

    Or that Crimea is that important to the Russian oligarchy?

    Crimea, Donbass and Ukraine in general are minor problems.

    The Great Bifurcation is the most important one.

  26. Felix Keverich says

    Crimea is a major obstacle to US-Russia cooperation and it’s not going to magically take care of itself.

  27. Felix Keverich says

    Both Russians and Ukrainians can live perfectly well without Crimea.

    Factually wrong. No Russian government will be able to return Crimea to the Ukraine without looking like a bunch of traitors and losing all domestic legitimacy as a result. Basically, after announcing return of Crimea they would be forced to seek refuge inside some Western embassy – this is how it’s going to be.

  28. Felix Keverich says

    You seem like a complete moron to me.

  29. Sinotibetan says

    There is just one thing. You think the Chinese don’t know this? And you think the Russian elites want Russia to be a total Western ally? Rather, I think the Russian elites, Putin included, will use this Western – China new cold War to get concessions from BOTH sides. Yes, a reset with the West may be possible but not such a cozy West plus Russian alliance as you alluded.
    Russia can live without Crimea but getting hold of it was not only strategic but also of symbolic significance to the Russian Govt. That’s why Putin’s popularity skyrocketed when that happened. So, Crimea will remain with Russia. The West may gradually ‘ignore’ this problem because they plan to use Russia as part of their encirclement plan for China.
    A totally Western lapdog Russia will ultimately imperil future Russian regimes as much as the Chinese one. Should the West bring down the CCP and create chaos in China with their nefarious schemes, Russia is next and the West will finish off what they did not do manage to fulfill during Yeltsin’s time…. Completely neuter Russia militarily and also break the country up to smaller units to be incorporated into Western vassals. I hope those Russian elites are not so stupid to ally with the West so fast, then they deserve their doom. All they need to do is just be neutral in this West vs China spat, they will be courted by both sides.
    These things play out with or without Putin at the helm. Those list of economic problems you list are not insurmountable. I am not going to go point by point but just address some….
    “significant portion of Russian gold has been sold this year”
    https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves
    Russian gold reserves are actually increasing again.
    “Russian peak oil”
    -may not be sooner because of OPEC + agreements to cap oil production to stabilize oil prices during this pandemic times
    -Russian arctic actually has abt 90 billion oil barrels and the Russians are having forays in the antarctic as well. The only problem is the current low oil prices prohibiting explorations. Oil will not remain low forever, it would likely skyrocket in price because no ‘clean energy’ can replace oil in the foreseeable future.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russia-Makes-Move-On-Antarcticas-513-Billion-Barrels-Of-Oil.amp.html
    And , sure, we all should take Putin seriously but remember he is a politician. He can say a lot of things but unless we can his read his mind, do we really know what he really thinks? And the moment Brennan says the reset includes a President Navalny for Russia, he loses his credibility as a ‘source’. Putin might step down but I think he won’t be so stupid to as not planned beforehand the next ‘heir’…. The likelihood of that person being Navalny is close to zero.
    I belong to the pesky Chinese ethnic group, though not from China. Don’t forget to put China in the equation, their elites won’t just allow the West to ally with Russia. That’s why I believe the Russian elites will likely want a neutral Russia and play both sides. Concessions…. The West reduces its pressure on Russia. For the Chinese, Russia remains neutral or reduce opposition. This may be the “reset”.

  30. Sinotibetan says

    Oh I forgot… Concessions from China, perhaps more gas and oil pipelines from Russia but more to Russian advantage.
    This is wiser reset than to take sidesin this West vs China.

  31. I sincerely hope that you are correct in everything you wrote. I don’t want to see Russia confronting China on behalf of the globalized West.