I am by no means a Serbia expert, and have to rely on other, more informed people – e.g., a couple of Serbian nationalist acquaintances – to tell me what is really going on there.
Anyhow, here’s the critical part which they are all agreed upon.
Despite his “reputation” in the West, Vucic is not a Serbian nationalist. He is actually hated amongst many Serbian nationalists, because they believe that he plays to them while planning to sell out on Kosovo. For instance, back in September, he relieved Chief of the General Staff Bratislav Dikovic, who is a veteran of the 1999 war against NATO and represents the hardcore pro-Russian wing in the military. Cleaning out or cowing patriotic officers would necessarily need to happen before any moves to stop resisting the final secession of Kosovo.
At the very least, Vucic is held to have no strong political convictions of his own, who can be expected to take the path of least resistance. That path, given Serbia’s position, is quite obvious. It leads to Brussels.
In this sense, he would appear similar to Milosevic, who was not the rabid, foaming at the mouth Kebab Remover of Western fantasy, but a typical sovok apparatchik forced along into nationalist projects, but whose half-hearted commitment to them ensured their failure – and eventually, his own political demise at the hands of nationalist insurgents. With said Bulldozer Revolution getting promptly hijacked by liberals.
In this sense, the Russian state – which from Serbian Sputnik up to Putin himself have slavishly backed Vucic, one suspects largely on account of his quasi-Russophile rhetoric and because he triggers Western journalists into writing op-eds on how he is an evil Putler puppet and Serbian SWPL-LGBT into demonstrating on the streets – may have set itself up for a rude awakening.
Having just received the Order of Alexander Nevsky from Putin – the first foreign head of state to be so honored – now is perhaps as good a time as any to repay him with a knife in the back. If Serbia is to recognize Kosovo, Russia will be put in an impossible position, hardly able to veto it (not after sinking so much political capital into Vucic). Serbian nationalists, much weaker than they were a couple of decades – the current protests are dominated by liberals, unlike in 2000 – will be even further demoralized. NATO membership to round things off and definitely lock Russia out of the Balkans in another decade.
At the very least this is the Blackpill Scenario (Serbian Edition). Perhaps it might not pan out – not yet, anyway. Apparently, the biggest champion of the Kosovo betrayal is Macron, and he has some minor issues of his own right now.
What’s the current status on that actually? Obviously the Serbs will never get back most of the province, but I dimly recall there was some talk about somewhat realistic proposals for reintegrating the areas in Kosovo that still have significant numbers of Serbs via negotiations (as part of some exchange of territory?).
There also seems to be something about Albania possibly annexing Kosovo in the next few years.
I seem to recall that the idea of Serbia giving the Presevo Valley to Kosovo in exchange for Kosovo giving northern Kosovo to Serbia was previously flirted with. This would create a more ethnic border between Serbia and Kosovo if implemented.
I haven’t heard anything about Albania annexing Kosovo, though.
Eh issue is Yugoslav leaders were pigs living like kings, but couldn’t really own bunch of property. Now when ex-yugo communists are in power, and can own property, they steal like piggies too. Two examples are Milo Đukanović, who in 90s was loudest Serbian nationalists, and now has his own Milonegrin nation, he did whole independence thing to protect his stolen wealth, because USA was coming after him. Other one is Milorad Dodik, Republic of Srpska, Bosnia&Herzegovina, where he’s using Milo’s recipe, his party was even trying to push, in Srbija=Serbians, Srpska=Serbs, but ofc. whole thing failed, it would be like Ukrainians pushing name Rus for themselves.
Anyway Vučić wasn’t commie as far i know, but he’s from same milleu, he uses same Milo and Milorad tactics when it comes to ruling Serbia. Nationalists meanwhile are disorganized, usually their organizations tend to be infiltrated, for example last big lgbtian styled protest was led by bunch of people that were former leaders in nationalists organizations. There’s also krug dvojka thing, pretty much whole Belgrade elite are (grand)kids of former commies who stole property of people that run away in exile or simply got killed during the 1940s. Krug dvojka is like circle made by tram number two, it’s centre of Belgrade, population around 200 000.
Church, with issues itself (like there’re still some udba priests inside, low education of clerics in some areas etc.), is actually only institution that shows signs of health, any trustworthy nationalist organization is connected with Church, there’s even “feminist” movement inside church, but of totally different type. Like, marriage values, education, family counsel, charity for families with more kids, promoting that smart women should gave more births, and totally self financed one.
But average Serb mind is heavily Protestantized in view what Church really is, and tend to visit it only when they’re in trouble.
Still, while internal situation in Serbian populations is pretty bad, for various of reasons, i don’t think that Serbian politicians can go hostile toward Russia, unlike Milonegro, which has small population and only needs small number of Miloniggas with some local Muslims to control it, that wouldn’t work in population of 7 millions. If you check Russian reddit last thread posted about Putin’s visit, you will notice how Serbs immediately turned hostile on lgbtian Serbs there.
NATO is out of question for at least 2 decades, but unfortunately EU referendum would pass, dumb women, Belgrade hoes plus old people and naive 18-23 demographics would vote Serbia in. Still Kosovo and Metohija issue, while appalling, has one good side in this age of migrations. Simply on any mention of settling some glorious Pakistanians or Somalis inside of Serbia, nationalists only need to whisper look what happened in Kosmet, and that turns into buzzz, which causes panic even amongst moderately liberal people.
Yes, that’s probably what I dimly remembered.
Apparently it’s been talked about for years, in 2015 Albania’s pm even called it “inevitable”:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-albania-kosovo-unification-idUSKBN0MY18L20150407
And now border controls between Albania and Kosovo have apparently been removed, which is seen by Serbia as a prelude to unification:
https://www.balkaneu.com/serbia-fears-the-lifting-of-borders-between-albania-and-kosovo/
http://www.balkanspost.com/article/765/serbian-mp-albania-seeks-to-annex-our-territory
Yep.
Don’t say.
The QUESTION
Well, Anatoly and esteemed (Western) readers, here is the thing. This is a public place, quite well monitored, and the times are finicky.
So, it’s advisable to keep one’s mouth shut re certain scenarios. Still, here it goes.
We are talking Serb nationalists, so, an image just popped up from not so recent past:
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0406/Bosnian-war-20th-anniversary-Sarajevo-residents-remember-siege-victims-Friday
This excerpt, that is:
…”irritated Serb nationalists, who then shot into the crowd from a nearby hotel, killing five people and igniting the 1992-1995 war…..”
As for
It’s not, unfortunately. It’s light gray pill. There are some quite feasible black pills scenarious, especially for Serbs in Kosovo itself.
As the commentator below said, for example:
Any way you cut it, hard times for Serbs. Hard times indeed.
I believe all this goes way beyond Serbs and Kosovo, especially because of timing. My gut feeling is telling me that “they” are good.
That “Christian” monitor forgot to end with Mohamad akbar, war in BH started before april 1992, and siege started as self defense because of constant attacks of wannabe jihadis. In march only, you had several incidents in Sarajavo, first being armed attack on Serbian wedding.
Russia has been locked out of Balkans since Montenegro joined NATO in 2016. By now Serbia is a small landlocked country, surrounded by NATO on all sides, with no strategic value to Russia as an ally. Entire region of Balkans is economic and strategic backwater and isn’t worthy of our attention.
In this era, I view borders as primarily being fixed, with some exceptions within Africa. And by that I mean they are determined by hegemonic powers based on their own interests – within Europe, primarily NATO, which is arguably controlled by globalist elites and has fixed interests.
I don’t think they truly have any Wilsonian ideals about self-determination. They probably love these non-states, no fly zones, and autonomous regions. Fuzzy borders. The idea that borders would change based on ethnicity has to be complete anathema to them – especially within Europe, especially when it involves Muslims.
I mean some of them think Serbs are Nazis. They don’t want to grow ethnic Serbia. That’s why NATO intervened.
Well, mate, for a guy who, apparently, knows a lot about the region….that’s all you can comment on my comment?
Rather disappointing, you know.
Harsh.
May I make a suggestion?
How about you just sit back and read what other people write here? You even might learn something.
I know, fat chance, but had to try.
What’s wrong about what songbird wrote?
Serbs were widely depicted as quasi-Nazis during the Balkan wars, and Germany’s insufferable foreign minister Joschka Fischer even invoked Auschwitz as an argument for the Kosovo war. And yes, Western elites probably would be against border corrections on the basis of ethnicity…because it would be an admission that ethnicity matters and that sometimes separation is the best solution. That’s also why they’re trying to keep a bizarre construct like Bosnia-Herzegovina alive.
A few points.
Why would a recognition of Kosovo be so bad for Russia? There’s your precedent for a border change following the illegal (under international law) application of military force, loosely based on the desire of an ethnic majority in a province.
An annexation by Albania would be even better. A possible secession of the Bosnian Serbs, and thus chaos in the Balkan, still better. The secession of the Bosnian Serbs brutally oppressed by Brussels and NATO, a dream scenario for Russia. At least from a propaganda viewpoint. And what else do you want from Serbia?
Anyone pointing a finger at the Crimea, Russia would be able to cite the example of Kosovo. Currently the Russian position is inconsistent, because it points at Kosovo as a precedent, but it also condemns the Kosovo War and the secession of the province as illegal. If Kosovo was illegal, it cannot logically be a precedent for the Crimea, except if Crimea was illegal, too. But what if Kosovo was legal?
It’s interesting that even though Serbs are usually seen as enemies in Hungary (we supported Croatia against Serbia, and we like Croats but not Serbs), the NATO bombing of Serbia was viewed with great suspicion by the hardcore nationalists already back in 1999, and it grew to outright hostility. We don’t hate the Albanians. The bombing just didn’t seem to be just, rather like a brutal action by some horrible globalists.
I wrote a longer comment above. If you wanna know about region. Shiptar wannabe state is losing recognitions by some exotic countries, so it’s unlikely that Serbia will recognize them now, especially because EU is occupied by some other things.
Chances for wars are minimal, considering how low energy all nations are, for example just Shiptars exported 100 000 young people in one month of 2015. I guess they were Guinea pigs for bigger show.
Bosniaks meanwhile went from, we’re inherit Balkans because of low fertility of kuffar, to oh no we’re disapearing, in just 20 years. According to latest projections, they have worst demographic future. And with internet, they kind of noticed that Islamic countries don’t really look that nice, some that traveled even noticed that rich Gulf countries aren’t really paradises on Earth, and unlike Croats and Serbs they don’t have Churches to give them some air to breathe. If nothing except some wahabis here and there, they lost love for Sharia.
Oh and whole migration was, and still is coordinated by CIA agents employed by US embasies, ofc. bulk of logistic is done by IOM and western NGOs. Currently main route is Albania, Montenegro, trough BH Muslims areas—>Croatia and then into Italy. So only conflict that could happen, is some ISIS uprise if mama ‘murica decides so. But some local war is unlikely.
Everything.
NATO did not bomb Serbs into submission because the people in power believed in that nonsense.
If you can’t get that, well, won’t help you there. Would take too much time and effort.
There were deep cultural, even religious, let alone geopolitical reasons for that “bombing”. Anyway.
Yeah. Except that rule doesn’t matter when they decide not to matter.
ISRAEL?
I tell you this:
If Serbs roll with this their enclaves will be eaten by Kosovo. Then, Kosovo will de facto if not de jure unify with Albania.
And, should Serbs still show even a bit of nationalism “they” will take Sanjak and/or Presevo valley.
If Serbs , then, don’t self-imolate themselves, “they” will take Vojvodina.
And still “they” will keep the pressure on Serbs.
This push against Serbs goes beyond them, Balkans, even Russia and Europe. It’s the basics of the current paradigm.
The only way out of this, for Serbs that is, is something I can’t say here.
Or, by some miracle, West, or at least USA, implodes.
Or…hehehe…the, ahm, leadership in White House misread the Kremlin and we all go to Hell.
Russia should’ve invested in grooming Roki Vulovic to be the Serbian President instead of putting its eggs in the basket on Vucic, who honestly looks like a liberal globohomo soyboy, and probably really is one deep down.
Israel has nuclear weapons. And tbh, I think even Israel is constrained in what can do by international pressure, despite the undoubted influence of the Zionist lobby. From an Israeli nationalist point of view the best solution would clearly be to expel or kill all Palestinians. But if the Israelis did that, there would probably be severe repercussions, so they have to do this creeping annexation over decades.
But no need to take this thread off-topic, there’s more than enough about Jews and Israel on the rest of Unz review.
That’s quite enigmatic, and I can’t be bothered trying to find out what it’s supposed to mean.
Basically, Russia needs a precedent of might is right being legalized. The more arbitrary the better. If, for example, Albania could annex Kosovo following an illegal war and illegal secession, and it was legalized, but then Bosnian Serbs were brutally oppressed, and their secessionist government deposed by military force, and all that was considered to be legal, too, then Russia could annex Crimea legally (Serbia might actually recognize the Crimean annexation once it recognized Kosovo, as a kind of passive aggressive payback), but it could also legally depose the Belarusian government following a quick military invasion (Lukashenka is still officially a dictator, isn’t he? so based on his human rights record, he could be deposed), or start a military action to prevent the secession of Chechnya.
Do you have sources on that which could be read by the Western commenters here?
Obviously the lying media in Western Europe do their best to cover up the networks facilitating the migration, so we don’t get a good picture of what’s going on.
Ah, good.
Ah, yes, that was always very important for igniting wars, especially in the Third World, Balkans in particular.
Chances of, ahm, continuation of “contracting” process are not, I believe.
Presevo->Sanjak. Oh, BTW, Sanjak in Montenegro too.
Then Vojvodina.
All good, then.
Truth be told, the Serb political situation is a sorry mess that has been corrupted by the money coming in from Western orgs to promote a certain line. On the subject of Russia, Serbia and disputed territories:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/12/21/un-does-kosovo-and-azov-sea.html
https://www.globalresearch.ca/twisted-history-against-russia-and-serbia/5390154
You’re not as smart as you think you’re.
Well most American embassies are quiet now, they also deleted lot of old posts from fb that could literally were proving their involvement, if i was journalists and proving it, i would try to dig out activities done by US embasies in region in 2014-2015, consulate in Istanbul was especially active in 2014. Also Albanian migration from Kosmet in january/february 2015 is telling. If you have time, maybe you can go trough old fb posts of already mentioned consulate, in case they didn’t deleted some of it, all that i bookmarked are gone tho.
About NGOs, and IOM it’s not really hard to find it, just go on IOM page for BH, or find a guy named Peter Van der Auweraert on twitter. Another issue is this Marakes thing, people don’t understand how shitty it’s, because government can now punish media for “inhumane” reporting, there are already open discussions in Balkans with journalist unions done about potential consequences, and how to properly report about whole thing.
Anyway that’s all from me on this article, because i expect as always when Serbia is topic on similar forums bunch of wild takes, and i don’t have time for it.
Probably.
But your types are.
Takes a lot of smarts to rationalize all this. I am sure you’ll do well with Presevo valley, next.
Oh, wait. The “cleanup” of North Kosovo first. Sorry.
That’s very interesting, disturbing to see that this UN compact already has such consequences.
That’s regrettable, but thanks for sharing your perspective with us, it was informative.
Why so pessimistic? Hungary could easily be larger or smaller. Its size stabilized only when Russians and Germans got convinced Hungary would not attack either. FFS Hungary did not bother with a decent mission to Afghan.
The same goes with the Serbs. If they will loosen up, if they adopt a convincing beta posture, supine to Russia and Germany, they will be spared.
Vucic is free of any patriotic ideals and sees the people as low iq, low worth bydlo. He did spend 3 decades in the field, learnt his people, and it’s a good call.
Rise to power: West has a tactic to use compromised “patriots” to execute un-patriotic stuff, stuff pro-West “liberals” cannot pull off. I honestly don’t understand why, but Germans and French support English and Americans in installing a US foothold in the Europe’s belly, i.e. Kosovo. Vucic’s job is to make it happen, that’s why they brought him in 7 years ago. A perennial loser, a scarecrow, he was simply brought in and given power. Funny anecdote, on the day Vucic side first took power by winning presidential elections, some Brussel clerk couldn’t wait so late to congratulate, so they simply sent the telegram at the end of the work day at 5pm – 3 hours before the polls closed, on a super close race!
Establishing power: Vucic quickly gathered money by selling govt jobs like in ancient Rome (you want to govern town X – ok, that costs $$$). Then he used that money to literally buy off the key journalists, editors, professors and also make some show sackings. Every other small fry fell in place, it was beautiful. They fell in for fear of job loss or because: “Here’s our Lee Kwan Yew, silencing the terrible, fruitless cacophony that is “democracy” and now we’ll get to work. He’s young, smart and energetic, we’ll make strides now!”
His pillars of power:
– media
– siloviki
– criminals
– Alex Soros et all
MEDIA: His stranglehold on print and electronic media is by far the best we have ever seen, simply breathtaking how lightly yet firmly he holds the reins. The print is reduced to porn and shocking murders. Old stuff is regurgitated on slow days. All six national TV channels are his. He outright bought, through intermediaries, every bit of media that has any traction at all. The true stroke of genius is this – public discourse is brought down to the gutter (parliamentary discussion as well!) It is so vile and disgusting that every sane person simply has to check out, simply to keep their sanity. Voila – politics is so putrid and vile, you don’t even need all that much bread and circuses to keep the people from even thinking about politics. Oh, and the internet? Internet is used by youngish people who are preoccupied with leaving the country, it’s the army of pensioners that’s the key demo. There’s some agency that DMCAs most biting stuff, but internet is still largely free, since it is so harmless.
SILOVIKI: Army has been neutered through pensioning old staf, the new [general] staf all graduated Western army schools and are hand picked by foreigners. Soldiers are professional, but their pay is miserable, to keep it cheap and to make sure only idiots sign up. No threat there.
Secret police was basically killed when Milosevic was toppled. It’s just funny now. Ran by a sidekick, who used to put up tiling for a living in previous life. I told you they brought in these guys from the cold.
Police is in bed with criminals, on all layers. Some 60% of hits are performed by [former] policemen, the brass is enjoying realestate way above their pay grade.. The minister is another side kick, nickname Sputum. Chief operative is a thot deeply tied with murderers. Oh, the minister of health’s nickname? Death! Why “Death” you ask? Him being a doctor, he would go to work and finish off victims of gang shootouts, on orders of his cronies the killers.
CRIMINALS: Our secret police has a proud tradition of using criminals as buttons since the 60s. Today, if you don’t have a secret police badge, radio device and even their goons guarding you – why you are no criminal at all! Criminals are useful when there’s a local election somewhere, you send out a couple of jeeps worth of Chads to crack a few Virgin oppo skulls, helps with the margin. More importantly, criminals are the true shock troops for the ruler (so no need for expensive army and police, these guys demand no salary at all, just a get-out-of-jail card now and then).
ALEX SOROS ET ALL: Vucic is happy to fellate most any foreigner, but it is obvious he yearns to ingratiate himself to the Soros wing (picking winners, smart!). Him, like most other local lords paid protection money to Clinton [foundation] and he even made an appearance with Bill Clinton and the mayor of Srebrenica shortly before the 2016 elections. Sucked up to McCain, paid Giuliani to appear in Belgrade, Corey Lewandowski and so on.
The West is a pillar of Vucic’s power because without their oh so apparent support he’d be out years ago. Widely shared example of West propeling Vucic is Merkel receiving him days before elections, seen as highly supportive. That’s fine, but why does Putin do the same thing Merkel does? He never failed to support Vucic, and never even raised an eyebrow in his general direction. All the while he must know all this, the stuff I put before you is mostly direct quotes from public discourse.
The future: with his grip on the print and the 6 national TV stations, Vucic is irreplaceable as long as the West got his back (it took Western action to topple Milosevic, a lot of diplomatic pressure to retire Kostunica and Tadic fell because they needed Vucic for the job). They want him to move the Overton window so that the Kosovo can be amputated with a whisper, and he can do it in 2 weeks, but he’s drawing his feet not because he’s a patriot, but because he doesn’t see what else they need him for once that is done. Once he finds another cause he’ll be needed for – the Kosovo is gone. In fact, he’s meeting with Kosovan leaders in private and arranging the next steps (you guys proclaim an army and march a little bit through here, and I’ll throw a hissy fit and march my two platoons with no ammo half the country away, it’s gonna be great!)
Former russian ambassador Konuzin famously exclaimed in a panel discussion one time, re Kosovo – Are there no Serbs here?! He was the only one on the panel with a pro-Serb position, among all the serbian liberasts.
Serbs sold out, they were finally broken starting Oct 1944, mostly through embracing abortion and going from family общи́на to nuclear family. While we had the numbers we had the strength, and some quality individual would pop up here and there (Tesla, Pupin, Milutin Milankovic, Zivojin Misic,…).
The Serbian society is like a culture in a Petri dish, completely harmless and the West can easily and cost-free learn how to manage it (like they openly said, turn it into Czechs) or destroy it. The problem is, that culture, in that Petri dish, relates on so many levels to the great Russian folk. For that reason alone, if I were Russian, I’d lob a couple into the lab, before they concoct the perfect blue pill.
All the best white people were killed in world wars I and II, we’re doomed.
There’s no need to rewrite history. Milosevic chose to ride the nationalist wave to power. That was rather understandable, since the mild nationalist positions he opted to back were actually quite reasonable – a point which even some Croat communists were willing to concede. At the time (ie late 80s), he probably didn’t foresee that the end of Yugoslavia was just around the corner. As Yugoslavia began to rapidly disintegrate, there was no backing out of nationalism for him; he was trapped by it, rather than “forced” into it.
My opinion regarding Kosovo is it’s a deadweight that Serbia is better off without. The fact is that if, in 1912, Albania had somehow managed to occupy, annex and hold onto Kosovo, by the 1990’s there would have been no more agitation about “taking it back” among Serbs than there is among Greeks regarding the Greek minority in southern Albania. The Serbian position in Kosovo would have been much like the Hungarian experience in Vojvodina – undesirable, but hardly unlivable. The only thing that would have justified Serbs trying to hold onto Kosovo was if, beginning shortly after its acquisition by the Serbian state, Serbs began a West Bank-like colonization effort. Unfortunately, there was no great enthusiasm (to put it mildly) for settling that supposedly “sacred” land.
Good question. Especially if the solution to the problem appears to be:
Weli, it’s probably just me but, in that sentence there are so many wrongs I could write 10 pages about just from top of my head. Or nothing.
That’s bullshit. Knowing that is father’s family was from Croatia and suffered under the Ustase and that he joined the Serbian Radical Party (ie nationalists) when he was only 23, it’s not hard to imagine him having had a nationalist upbringing – which is to say, “strong political convictions.”
Of course, as a man politically matures and gains an appreciation of the political art of the possible, it’s not unheard of that his views moderate. So perhaps the hardcore nationalists are right, and it’s true that he no longer has strong political convictions. But knowing what you do of the wild, wild imaginings of hardcore nationalists (think the demented 1488 set), would you really consider their opinion reliable?
Lastly, consider too the possibility that, rather than playing the nationalists, he’s playing the western powers, whose support he at least minimally requires to enhance Serbia’s economic fortunes (economics fortunes without which the nationalist project is doomed anyway).
“Kebab remover” says everything about you. Vodka swiller!
Informative.
Thanks.
And yet….don’t know, but, just from “siloviki” perspective, aren’t all those guys, from battalion commander down to a trooper (both in military and security forces) who fought in ’99, still alive and around ?
True, bit older, but, still.
I am sure that, if there is a political will, Serbia could create a respectable force for at least North Kosovo “job” in 3 weeks, tops. Providing, of course, that Americans stay away.
This is what I’ve been told by serbs, too. I asked many of them if the protests were dominated by liberals, and they are, but they also told me it is more complicated than the easy narrative of “muh soros-style color revolution” precisely because Vucic is already a puppet of the West.
Some protesters are not liberals but are protesting what they perceive as a quasi-dictatorship with the veneer of democracy.
It’s possible that some of these protesters are also used as a pressure tactic against Vucic to remind him that he’s only where he is because of his western backers. There’s always a bigger sellout in the wing, waiting.
Either way, Serbian politics look deeply dysfunctional and largely a mess. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin already wrote off the country and is now just formally going through with the motions of support. I don’t see the long-term russian interest in serbia.
That’s interesting.
I found your post quite amusing – it’d been a while since I’d heard some quality Balkans conspiracy theory – but for it to really hit home, I had to translate it into Serbian as I read it. And boy, that really brought it to life. I mean, take this bit: you guys proclaim an army and march a little bit through here, and I’ll throw a hissy fit and march my two platoons with no ammo half the country away, it’s gonna be great! Rendering that into Serbian really revived memories of the million nationalist fucksticks I debated in the 90’s. It wasn’t just that their piss poor arguments helped turn me from nationalism to anti-nationalism, it was also their insufferable tendency to season their arguments with commentaries like the foregoing, aimed to demonstrate that they had a real insight into the behind-the-scenes maneuverings of international politics (and thus were really rather superior beings, you see).
So anyway, I imagined you were a Serb. But if so, why the curious orthography quoted above? Were you simply stuck typing on a Russian keyboard? Or perhaps you hoped to make your point more intelligible to the Russian readers here (who clearly could not be relied upon to understand “општина”). It certainly got me wondering.
The ” Krug dvojka” phenomenon of communist and post-communist elite that to large extent owes their wealth to the theft from the pre-communist elite is present in all post-communist countries. However in some countries there was some restitution and re-privatization done. Eg.: in Czechia Havel’s family got back what the communist nationalized. But I do not think it is politically feasible to do a full re-privatization in most countries. Unfortunately the former most opportunistic communists were groomed by the West as a new elite. They and the cliques from state security sectors are the new capitalists and the most progress loving democrats.
Wiki entries for new politicians, capitalists, journalists and celebrities in post-communist countries are (as I am told) very short on family histories. Usually one can’t find anything about their mothers and fathers and what did they do during communism as if they all were generatio spontanea a product of abiogenesis.
The best move for Israel would have probably been to capture the entire West Bank in 1949. It would have been even better if most of the Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank would have fled as a result of this Israeli conquest; that way, there would have been no need to expel anyone (Israel can deal with an Arab minority as long as it is not too large).
FFS = For Fuck’s Sake?
An important thing about Serbia is that Turkish stream (the gas pipeline) will pass through it, on the way finally to Hungary and Austria. Gazprom is also expanding gas storage capacities in Serbia for this purpose.
President Vuchich of Serbia, is the key supporter of these projects, so he is seen as an important ally. Serbia itself is a growing user of gas, but more significant is that it will be opening the new route to Austria/Hungary.
Poland seems to have been good about returning stolen property, to Polish citizens. They are so diligent that often they track down rather obscure connections. The communists stole some farmland from a childless cousin of a friend’s grandfather. My friend never heard of the guy, but apparently he and his brothers and cousins were the heirs of that land. They each got about $2,000.
I know of the descendant of a Russian general who stayed in Warsaw after the Revolution, only to have everything stolen after World War II. Fortunately the general’s heirs stayed in Poland and survived. They got a fortune (the building wasn’t available so they got cash compensation).
It is real justice.
The stipulation is that the ones getting restitution must be Polish citizens. So Israelis or Germans don’t get anything.
Orbán’s father was a minor communist party propagandist (not a full time job, but it was more than just a regular Party member). Otherwise he worked as a mechanic engineer in minor jobs for minor companies. He became an entrepreneur after the fall of communism, and probably his business benefited from his son’s political career.
https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orb%C3%A1n_Gy%C5%91z%C5%91_(%C3%BCzemm%C3%A9rn%C3%B6k)?wprov=sfti1
Versus:
Completely agree, the real black pill was Montinegro, and how Dukanovic’s corruption was systematically tolerated because he was atlanticist. This, if it happens, will just be a digestif.
Is that culturo-religious solidarity, a grudge against the Serbs for sparking the conflagration that brought down Austro-Hungary, or something else?
(Incidentally, some of my “Serb” friends are actually Hungarians who grew up in Yugoslavia.)
Mistake post
There’s a history of conflict with the Serbs since at least 1848 (when the Serbs were loyal to the Habsburgs trying to crush the initially constitutional Hungarian government), frequently resulting in mass murder, and the Serbs were always pretty brutal. (Occasionally the Hungarians, too, but the Serbs always outdid us.) Interestingly in 1848-49 the Croats fought on the side of the Habsburgs, too, but because there was no mass murder of civilians, it was quickly forgotten, I believe on both sides.
I think it’s a pretty good example of the extreme soft power of the West. With a little propaganda, minimal aid money, and occasionally some minimal discrete coercion they can keep growing their sphere of influence, with Belarus just getting there.
Throwing Serbia under the bus would send a signal to russian clients that they are expendable and should look the other way for protection (i.e: NATO, the US, china in the not so distant future). Putin (and russian foreign policy) ‘s strength is based on its consistency and continuity. If Russia shows the middle finger to Serbia, imagine how people like Lukashenka or Central Asians will react. Moreover Serbia is one of the few non CIS/ former Soviet Union where russian companies export finished products. For example RZD signed large infrastructure building contracts in Serbia.
Well, as I said, I am not any sort of Serbia or Balkans expert, having read zero books on that subject. I was relaying what Serbian nationalists say. Some seem to agree on this very thread.
“Obviously the Serbs will never get back most of the province,….”
If there is one thing that history of the Balkans could teach us, it would certainly be never to say never.
True, but if Serbia itself recognized Kosovo, then accepting it wouldn’t exactly be a betrayal.
Once ethnic cleansing of newly conquered provinces becomes conceivable and feasible, then, depending on greater power support, Serbia would have its chances of re-acquiring Kosovo. Though I’m not sure how good that would be – Eastern and Central Europe have dozens of borders which could be changed based on nationalist claims. And it often cuts both ways. As PeterAUS wrote, Serbia still has some areas which could be given to Kosovo based on demographics, and Kosovo currently has stronger greater power backers.
There is a lot more to this. Vučić & co were never nationalists, just opportunistic rabble-rousers. Up until 2008, Vučić and Nikolić (president from 2012-2017) were 3rd and 2nd respectively in Šešelj’s Radical Party. Šešelj maps onto Zhirinovsky pretty well, with over the top clownish rhetoric and a circus-like approach to politics. Anyway, he was in the Hague since the early 2000s on spurious war crimes charges (but that’s another topic). The point is, Nikolić and Vučić were actually running the party in Serbia, winning a plurality in election after election, but repeatedly excluded from power due to post-election coalitions by the other parties. In 2008, after yet another round of this, they came to the conclusion that they would never be allowed to come power as long as they were against the EU. Knowing that Šešelj would not budge on the issue (and tired of being treated like his minions), they split off and formed the Progressive Party, with the encouragement of the then-president Tadić, various Western diplomats, and following a meeting Vučić had at the Ritz in Paris with Đukanović (leader of Montenegro) and Stanko Subotić (basically an oligarch with strong ties to organised crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanko_Subotić).
The speculation (which has plenty going for it) is that Vučić agreed all the way back then that he would be “cooperative” on Kosovo if and when he came to power. In 2012, Nikolić won the presidential election (and was congratulated by the EU before the polls closed); the parliamentary majority was reconfigured, with Vučić formally taking the post of deputy prime minister. The first thing Vučić did when he came to power was sign the Brussels Agreement in 2013, which removed all institutions of the Serbian state from Serb-majority areas of Kosovo (where they had remained since 1999), and gave over those areas to the control of the “Kosovo government”. Other indicators of how low he will stoop are that he has hired Tony Blair as a government adviser, attended panel discussions with Bill Clinton and gave the Clinton Foundation $2 million in the run-up to Trump’s election.
tl;dr – Vučić was always an opportunist, merely interested in power and money. In 2008 he realised which way the wind was blowing and sold himself to the West (like Đukanović did in 1997).
Hard to say it was hijacked when it was those people, with bales of US dollars brought in via Hungary, that organised the whole thing, instrumentalising people’s legitimate grievances.
I don’t have the feeling Russia has been backing Vučić, quite the contrary. At best, they’ve been taking what they can get. The first solid indication of backing is the visit by Putin to Belgrade the other day; by contrast, up until now Russia has been rather cool and formal towards him.
The big push for Vučić to recognise Kosovo was in 2018. He had been in power for six years since 2012, gradually tightening his grip while enriching himself, and he had run out of excuses. He was and is in total control of all political institutions in the country, in control of the security service and almost every last media outlet. His control extends to Serb areas of Kosovo, where Vučić’s people participate in the occupation “Kosovo government”. However, even all that would not be enough to push through recognition, so he launched the idea of “partition”, along with months of fear-mongering about the threat of war and defeatist propaganda about how everything is hopeless, presumably with the idea to “get” a few villages in North Kosovo in return for recognition, to spin that as some sort of victory. The attempt has apparently failed because (1) elements of the church came out strongly against (2) Germany, unlike the US, isn’t willing to accept any border changes and insists on straight recognition i.e. something Vučić cannot put a spin on (3) among the Albanians there are those who thought getting a seat at the UN in return for a few Serb villages to be a terrible betrayal (lol).
That is the context of Putin’s visit to Belgrade. Vučič is seemingly out of options. My intuition is that the issue of Kosovo recognition is dead in the water – they really tried to push it through last year and failed. I just don’t see the practical steps to how it could happen now, especially with the protests spreading all over Serbia, not to mention that Vučić is intelligent enough to know he’ll be discarded as soon as he legalises the occupation of Kosovo. (re: the medal https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Список кавалеров ордена Александра Невского (Российская Федерация) )
On a wider point, Russia’s Balkan policy has been rather incompetent. They supported the independence of Montenegro, probably hoping for a foothold on the Adriatic and maybe a nice sunny location for offshore money – who knows. The end result is Montenegro joined NATO and is running around spreading propaganda about an entirely fictitious “Russian-backed coup attempt” on election day in 2016. A wonderful way to crush the opposition while retaining Western backing amidst all the Russia hysteria, so Đukanović can continue money-laundering and smuggling cocaine in peace. (A further example of Russia’s cack-handedness is that Putin allowed himself to be photographed in Belgrade with two of the opposition politicians from Montenegro accused of being involved in the supposed coup attempt. You can be sure that will be used as yet more propaganda.)
Kosovo belongs to the Albanians.
I see. I didn’t know about this. In which places did the mass murders take place?
This is the stuff that I really HATE about Russian policymaking. It’s not that gas has become a Russian “energy weapon”. It is Russia that has become an appendage to Putin’s natural gas business. I stand by my assertion that Serbia has minimal value from the perspective of Russian (as opposed to Gazprom’s) interest.
LOL Just what do you think Lukashenka is going to do? Pursue “multi-vector” foreign policy, developing ties with EU and US, refusing to recognise Crimea as a part of Russia, while constantly extorting Russia for more money? He is doing it now!
Of course, as a man politically matures and gains an appreciation of the political art of the possible, it’s not unheard of that his views moderate.
This must have been how Judas Iscariot tried to rationalize at first.
Truly, even a pig deserves its own sty.
If the property was owned by WWII citizen of Poland everybody could get restitution. I know of several Jewish families in the US who applied and got money. But restitution does apply to all confiscations. Like the ones due to the land reform after WWII when land owners were expropriated or big capitalists I think. The latter is not a problem because most of big factories including the ones that originally were owned by some capitalists were run down to the ground after communism collapsed during the process of de-industrialization.
About Germans it is more tricky. Germans who were Polish citizens is one thing. But properties on lands that were part of Germany before the WWII (from which Germans were expelled) do not qualify. So there is much less issue about ownership of real estate, say, in Breslau/Wroclaw as oppose to Krakow. This is one reason, as I was told, why Wroclaw (no property issues because Germans were expelled) develops faster than Krakow because when the final property ownership is still undetermined or on shaky grounds people do not invest into it. Also there are many fraudulent claims being made connected to developers mafias and local city governments, I was told.
Probably the ONLY thing one needs to know about that place.
Informative.
Armenoid, keep your nose out of Slavic affairs.
This thread has been hilarious.
I don’t even know where to start from.
I might pick up this nonsense first:
Oh, do please quote his terrible crime of approaching power brokers like Blair, Clinton and Schroeder in order to get a more favourable deal for Serbs.
Morevoer, you spout the 2 million dollar to Clinton nonsense which has been conclusively debunked several times already.
Anatoly, your acquintances from Serbia are either pig nationalists or simply fools far removed from any power and decision making, at the very margins of society.
Fuck off, you defetist ultraliberal propaganda-spouting miscreant.
Reading through your compendium of Pescanik, RSE, N1 and trashionalist bullshit makes me sick.
The best weapon against fucktards in Serbia is to ask them what policies and decisions would they make.
He has been in power since 2012 and already then the “CIA/BND/NATO pawn Vučić will recognize Kosovo” nonsense was prevalent.
2019 has dawned, and not only did he not recognize it, the progress to EU is stopped dead in its tracks, NATO membership is decidedly out of question, and a systematic policy of diplomatically undermining Shqiptar efforts throughout the world and associations is taking place – independence of Kosovo is recognized by ever less countries.
The imbeciles polluting this thread are totally devoid of the dire reality Serbia was in 2012.
In 2008, the euroatlantic DS coalition raised public and state sector wages and pensions – they funded this through privatisations, the last of the viable companies after vulture years of 2000 to 2012.
The rest of funds was obtained by foreign loans at 8% interest rate – in order for them to win in the crucial election. The one which saw Kosovo issue transfered from UN to EU, to EULEX.
Serb Dinar went for 83 for 1 Euro in 2008; in 2012 it was 120 for 1 Euro.
Imports in 2000-2012 had beeen constantly more than TWICE the exports – the deficit has been declining steadily from the moment Vučić took power.
25% unemployment rate in 2012 was more than halved by 2017.
It makes my blood boil to witness the braindead populist rhetorics devoid of reality at this site.
Tell me, you fucktards, if Kosovo is de facto Serbia, why the fuck did Serbia disband the AP KiM in 2002? Why did Serbia watch the March pogrom idly? Are Serbs south of Ibar worth your time? How many times did you go to Serbian Kosovo in this period?
But the most important question for “Serb patriots” and “nationalists” present here: Would you be so kind and write down whom did you vote for from 2000 to 2012?
And your parents?
I am betting on Đinđić, DS, DSS, Koštunica, G17 and the rest of them DOS euroatlantic stooges. Litteral Western money funded occupation governments and Quislings.
Really, the constantly nagging “no true Serb”-ridden simpletons can be summarised by the following metaphore.
Serbia in 2012 is playing poker with the worst hand possible against pros (USA/NATO) with bigger purse and tards with a lucky hand (Shqiptars).
The urapatriots standing beside are screaming at the Serb player to not fold and not bluff, but to instead win the game fair and square.
After their chosen people previously brought Serbia to shitty condition it is today.
Judging by the level of their knowledge and understanding, and the meme rhetorics they display, I might as well be called a SNS bot, sandwich eater after these responses.
PS: I actually am amused at anonymous posters thinking that Russian President, FM and Russian intelligence services have come to wrong conclusions regarding Vučić.
This might be some homeopathic knowledge right there – the less info you have and the less you know – the better the understanding of the issue you posses??
Regarding brutality, he have already went through Magyarization policies from 1790 to 1914, and the numerical/statistical effects of it.
Lets talk actual events: Did Serbs ever commit something close to January 4th-23rd 1942 raids? You know, murdering civilians and throwing them under ice en masse?
Hungarians tried carving out a nation state in 1848 inside borders where they didn’t even have majority, got thrashed in response.
A further point of interest: write down how many Serbs lived in Hungary in 1920, and how many live today. Then do the same for the number of Hungarians in Serbia in 1920, and today.
Thinking about it, Vučić accomplished nothing short of a miracle: he managed to shift the Overton window to such a ridiculous degree that euroatlantic voters and cocksuckers now campaign against him on a patriotic, Kosovo is Serbia platform.
Imagine my shock: a man who went through Smilja Avramov, Dragoš Kalajić, Velimirović, Đurić, Ilyin writings is called out by people descended from Titoists and who voted for unambiguous euroatlanticists in the past – for not being Serbian enough!
Nah, his father was born near Belgrade to Serb refugees fleeing Ustashe terror in NDH, present day Bosnia&Herzegovina.
Yep, you got me worked up. Time for some hard facts and chronology.
26.3.2002.
VSO (Vrhovi savet obrane) pushes FRY-Serbia&Montenegro towards NATO IPAP
19.6.2003.
An official request to NATO for IPAP, under the guidance and infuence of Javier Solana, is posted by Serbia&Montenegro – now a “union of states”, transformed from previous federation.
Serbia starts military exercises with NATO, followed by bilaterall exercises with NATO states agreed later on with individual member states, chiefly USA.
So, in 2014, when the FIRST military exercise with Russian Federation took place, Serbia had been doing military exercises with the West for 10+ years, and in years 2014-2018, there were 4-10X NATO-Serbia exercies yearly compared to Serbia-Russia ones.
18.7.2005.
Transit rights agreement signed with USA and NATO.
10.10.2005.
Serbian EU AAG negotiations begin
4.11.2005.
An official agreement on transit right ratified in Parliament. This agreement gives US/NATO immunity during transit through Serbia, and transit free of charge.
In 2006, a NATO-SCG Defence Reform Group, a common body of NATO and SCG is established
5.4.2006.
An agreement between Government of Serbia and Government of USA on destruction and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and upgrade of defence and military relations
24.7.2006.
Serbia-Kosovo talks begin in VIENNA! Remember, Kosovo hadn’t even proclaimed independence, and already the Resolution 1244 is broken, negotations with de iure Serbian territory take place in foreign, hostile EU land.
7.9.2006.
SOFA – Status of Forces Agreement signed in Washington, giving USA free access to Serbian military infrastructure among other things. Serbia signs a SPECIAL cooperation agreement with Ohio National Guard.
8.11.2006.
An Agreement on mutual supply and cooperation – USA-SRB 01 – between MOD of Serbia and USA
14.12.2006.
Serbia formally becomes part of NATO IPAP
18.12.2006.
A NATO Military Liaison Office is opened inside General Staff, subordinated to Naples NATO command. Its duties are overseeing DRG, EUFOR, SOFA. It has the right to inspect every single military unit and installation in Serbia, and check their readiness.
May 2007
At Parliamentary NATO Assembly at Madeira, Serbia becomes an ADJUNCT NATO member state.
27.7.2007.
Presentation document of Serbian NATO IPAP membership – political goals of it and NATO cooperation
7.11.2007.
EUAAG content agreed upon, signed – key detail – it actually envisions Kosovo independence as done deal
January-November 2008
Kosovo transferred from UNMIK (UN mandate) to EULEX (EU), paving the way for independence and circumventing UN and UNSC. Based Half-Turk Jeremić FM!
17.2.2008.
Kosovo proclaims independence
29.4.2008
Serbian EUAAG officialy signed, ratified in Parliament on 22nd September 2009
1.10.2008.
Serbia and NATO sign Information Security Agreement. Also, Serbia opens a Serbian Mission office at NATO.
30.6.2010.
The 12th meeting of Serbia-NATO Defence Reform Group is held – further “reforms” are agreed upon.
By now, Serbia had dismantled its conscription system, most of its tank force, all of the amphibious and engineering units and equipment, several thousands of SAM missiles, and reduced its military strength to less than 10 000 active duty soldiers – women are promoted, naturally.
Memes such as MILITARY SINDICATE are formed.
22.7.2010.
The mongoloid half-Turk FM Jeremić asked the International Court whether Kosovo independence based on sovereignity of nations is Illegal. The court replies it is not – high point of Kosovo independence world support.
Jeremić, a Oxford physicist, Harvard PhD holder who incorrectly answered Newton laws question, descended from a Turkish Aga and Yugocommunist state company embezzler director, will be rewarded by West for his “accomplishments” with a UN role. Funnily enough, his bid to become UN GenSec was launched by RSA, not Serbia.
March 2011
The notorious Bruxelles Kosovo-Serbia negotiations begin – prior to Vučić ascending to power. Contrary to claims of Serbtards on this page.
December 2011
MOD of Serbia takes in NATO Integrity Initiative, followed by NATO SE Europe Integrity Initative, which goes through SEDM, Southeast Europe Defence Ministry association
As can be seen from this short summary of Serbian euroatlantic integration (I could probably write a PhD thesis on Serbian 2000-2012 “EU has no alternative, it must be done” “NATO is the plan, but don’t tell the people about it”) every single process was in place before Vučić ever rose to power.
Another glimpse from the past, for those interested. Vučić originally served in the government of Yugoslavia as an information minister which actually had applied for an alliance with Russia and Belarus in 1999.
Yugoslav Assembly voted on 13th of April 1999 to become member of Alliance of Russian Federation and Belarus. Interestingly, Russian Duma voted for a resolution on April 16th 1999 with 293 votes “Yes”, 54 votes “against”. Belarus Assembly voted unanimously on May 5th 1999 on accession of Yugoslavia.
NATO bombing struck first, followed by NATO/euroatlantic coup/colour revolution in Yugoslavia, so nothing came of it.
Shqiptars behave like crypto-Turks though.
Roger Stone makes an appearance in InfoWars in 2016, states:
“One of the reasons why the FBI reopened the case was because of an allegation that the nation of Serbia was shaken down for two million dollars in order to get a meeting for their president with Barack Obama.”
Serbtards immediately proclaim – Vučić paid two million dollars to Clinton foundation!
And in their sheer brilliance, they oversee the fact that President Obama never met Vučić. That being the reason the payment was supposedly made. You cannot make this shit up. Not for a second did they even consider the context of election campaign, nor even attempted critical thinking and deducing – no meeting took place – no payment made.
In short, everything wrong about Serbs and Serbia can be witnessed in this very comment feed. Anonymous tards calling straight A law student an “idiot”, total failures calling a 50+% approval leader a “loser” and cowardly opportunists spouting empty “patriotic” slogans, while being descended from deserters of 1990s wars and Titoist pionners parents of Yugoslavia – calling the first Serb ethnic political leader since 1903 a “traitor”. Vučić proclaimed that Serbia is a nation state of ethnic Serbs – this immediately sent the opposition and liberasts into frenzy – they view Serbia as an undesired remnant of a century of Yugoslavism. Belgrade is a Yugoslav capital, a too large, empty head on a too small body, really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_purges_in_Serbia_in_1944%E2%80%9345?wprov=sfti1
This English language source says that well over 5,000 names were compiled (a very high bar for a mass murder half a century ago), the Serb historians estimate the number of murdered Hungarian civilians around 20-25 thousand, while Hungarian historians estimate the number to be between 20–40 thousand.
Regarding 1848, no one holds it against the Serbs (Croats, Romanians, etc.) that they fought for their (real or perceived) interests, but it was the Serbs (and Romanians) who massacred civilians in Hungarian villages. True, they were guerrillas and not regular soldiers like Croats or Hungarians. But it is one reason why Hungarians prefer Croats over Serbs.
You do realise that those same Yugocommunists murdered more Serb Orthodox Priests than Ustashe and Germans combined? They targeted Serb WW1 generals and officer, clergy, intellectuals, professors and burgeoisie.
The current list of people killed by Yugocommunists in 1944-1946 Serbia has 66 000 confirmed names, and unfortunately it continues to grow as more evidence is uncovered, especially the supressed truth of executions of Volksdeutschers (innocent, non-Nazi ones that remained after German retreat were all executed or expelled), Hungarians and nationally conscious Serbs – all “enemies of revolution”.
As can be expected – at the very onset of hostilities between Royal Yugoslavia and the Axis, the Yugocommunist leadership – Kardelj and Tito – discussed what would be their course of action. They agreed upon “causing chaos for the government”, in other words, undermining the expected resistance to invasion, and then effecting a revolution under the guise of fight against occupation.
Regarding soldiers, you might want to check the ethnic composition of Grenze regiments, especially in historical context – there is a reason why Hungarians easily defeated significantly larger Jelačić’s forces near Pakozd.
Great…..
“check their readiness” how? Papers/chat only or, it can effectively order an exercise with live ammunition?
The same/similar applies to security services paramilitary units?
Training, standards, and approach to NCOs as in NATO?
Just one question, actually: do infantry battalion commanders run with the troops each morning, leading the column ?