Cliodynamics: Mathematizing History

This , about History, tagged , , , , , , , was written by for on December 4, 2009 .5 Comments

One of the most interesting emerging sciences today, in my opinion, is cliodynamics. Their practitioners attempt to come to with mathematical models of history to explain “big history” – things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse. To the casual observer history may appear to be chaotic and fathomless, devoid […]

The Deeper Meaning of Climategate

This about Futurism, tagged , , was written by for on December 1, 2009 .13 Comments

As someone who has stuck his neck out for the imminent reality of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in both his real and online life, it would be fitting for me to comment on the Climatic Research Unit e-mail hacking incident (and as per usual, what was originally meant as a “comment” has blossomed into a […]

Book Review: Vaclav Smil – Global Catastrophes and Trends

This about Futurism, tagged , , , , , was written by for , on September 28, 2009 .3 Comments

Smil, Vaclav – Global Catastrophes and Trends (2008) Category: futurism, climate change, geopolitics, catastrophes; Rating: 5/5 Summary: Google Books Vaclav Smil, an energy theorist and language connoisseur, brings his talents to bear on this idiosyncratic, incisive and balanced book on the global future. From the outset, he outlines his skepticism in universal theories of history […]

Russia’s Demographic Resilience II

This about Demographics, tagged , , was written by for on September 26, 2009 .15 Comments

As little as a few months ago, alarmist commentators were forecasting Russia’s demographic doom. They predicted a wave of abortions that would strip down its post-2006 fertility gains, and a prolonged period of fertility postponement that would have longterm effects deep into its dark Putinist future. Meanwhile, there would be a renewed pandemic of vodka […]

Top 10 AGW Denial Myths

This about Science & Technology, tagged , , was written by for on June 6, 2009 .7 Comments

I’ve long viewed the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) denial movement with a certain sense of bemusement. The causal links are rock-solid – could it really be a coincidence that atmospheric CO2 levels started rising at the very same moment as industrial civilization got into swing, within decades reaching magnitudes big enough to decisively interrupt the […]

Oily Origins of the Economic Crisis

This about Futurism, tagged , , , was written by for on February 18, 2009 .6 Comments

In an article some months ago I suggested that “perhaps this crisis is simply an unconscious recognition of this inconvenient truth?” – namely, the peaking of oil extraction and all that it implies for the continued survival of a financial system built on assumptions of continuous economic growth. In other words, the fashionable approach of […]

Demography III – Faces of the Future

This about Demographics, tagged , , , , , was written by for on July 21, 2008 .17 Comments

I developed a model on Russia’s future demographic development in Matlab. First, I will describe (non-mathematically) the essentials of how it works; then I will present a range of different possible scenarios. Our data is sourced from Rosstat and the Human Mortality Database. Demography is a social science, and as such it is impossible to […]