Where Do The French Presidential Candidates Stand on Russia?

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on April 22, 2012 .21 Comments

Le Nouvel Observateur recently compiled opinions on Russian democracy from each of the ten French Presidential candidates. While the Left is highly critical of the authoritarian Putin regime, the Right is more favorably disposed to the Russian President-elect. On the eve of the first round of the French Presidential elections, I provide a translation of Russie: Ce […]

Translation: Evgeny Minchenko – Seven Myths About The Russian Elections

This about Politics, tagged , , was written by for on April 1, 2012 .11 Comments

Apart from direct falsifications, which were extensively discussed here, the other really big criticism of the Russian elections process is that it isn’t a level playing field. As said by an OSCE bureaucrat, “The point of elections is that the outcome should be uncertain. This was not the case in Russia.” Well wait a second. First, […]

List Of Estimates On Fraud In Russia’s 2012 Presidential Elections

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 21, 2012 .1 Comment

This post is a follow-up to a similar one for the 2011 Duma elections. It contains an extensive list of blogger, pundit and “expert” opinions on the extent of fraud in the 2011 Duma elections. Interspersed among these opinions and analyses are results from federal opinion polls, election monitors, and other evidence. In general, it seems we can […]

Why Statistics Only Support 3%-6% Fraud

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 21, 2012 .5 Comments

Remember Sergey Shpilkin? He is the mathematician, blogging as podmoskovnik, who estimated 16% fraud for the Duma elections (also the one whom the WSJ plagiarized off). He got this figure by assuming that in a fair election, the share of the vote for each candidate at each level of turnout had to be a constant factor. This […]

The World’s Sleaziest Magazine On Putin’s Election Victory

This about Media, tagged , , , was written by for on March 9, 2012 .33 Comments

It’s all so predictable. In its main piece on the elections, The Economist wrote: And by some estimates vote-rigging added at least ten percentage points to Mr Putin’s tally. The main victim was Mikhail Prokhorov, a business tycoon and the only fresh face in the election. Officially he got 8%. His real vote was probably […]

Quiz: Did This Happen In Russia Or A Democratic Country?

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 9, 2012 .1 Comment

Did you know that elections in Britain and the US are marred by mass fraud? At least that would be the inescapable  conclusion if they were to be subjected to the most popular methods to “prove” that Russian elections are rigged in favor of Putin and United Russia. Below I have a translated a delightful […]

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Prokhorov, President Of Londongrad

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 7, 2012 .19 Comments

Once again, a picture that’s worth a thousand words, courtesy of Alex Kireev: A map of how Russians abroad voted in the 2012 elections (see below). Quantitatively, they split into three main groupings, each accounting for about a third of the votes from abroad: (1) Residents of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Pridnestrovie; (2) Other republics […]

Why Golos’ Own Figures Support Only 3%-6% Fraud

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 6, 2012 .18 Comments

Since yesterday, the following image from an article by liberal journalist Evgenya Albats has been making the rounds on the Internet. It shows that whereas Putin’s official tally was 65%, independent observers put it close to or below the 50% marker that would necessitate a second round, such as Golos’ 51% and Citizen Observer’s 45%. Predictably, […]

The Provincialization Of Russian Electoral Fraud

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for on March 5, 2012 .12 Comments

Analysis of the election data is now trickling in, so I feel I can now make some real preliminary estimates of the degree of fraud (eventually, I will compile a list of estimates as I did for the 2011 elections). My assessment is that in these elections it was on the order of 3%-4%, which […]

Winners Of The Election Predictions Contest

This about Politics, tagged , , , was written by for on March 5, 2012 .10 Comments

Before the 2012 Russian Presidential elections, 23 particularly courageous (or foolhardy?) netizens and Russia watchers participated in a contest on this blog to predict its results for the chance of eternal glory and a free S/O T-Shirt. The winner is the person with the least aggregate error, i.e. the sum of the absolute discrepancies between his […]

Preliminary Thoughts On The Election Results

This about Politics, tagged , , was written by for on March 4, 2012 .19 Comments

Latest results are getting in that Putin got 63.8%. That a second round would be avoided was never really in serious doubt for the past month, nonetheless the election would still be important from several other perspectives, such as the level of falsifications (in particular, in comparison with 2011), and the relative performance of Zhirinovsky, […]

My (Second) Article On The Russian Elections At Al Jazeera

This about Politics, tagged , , , , was written by for , on March 4, 2012 .4 Comments

Here it is: Reading the Russian election. Please comment at their site, rather than here, if possible.